BAGHDAD — In the final days before the United States withdrew its troops from Iraq, American intelligence officers worried that a future Sunni insurgency here might be led not by Al Qaeda but by an organization whose leaders are former high-level members of Saddam Hussein's Baath Party.
Now, after large numbers of Sunni tribesmen clashed with government forces last week, Iraqis of all sects are asking two questions: Is the country headed toward a new civil war? And, if so, will the group of former Baathists lead one side of it?
The group, the Men of the Army of the Naqshbandia Order, commonly known by the initials of its Arabic name, J.R.T.N., has emerged as a potential alternative to Al Qaeda in Mesopotamia for Sunnis who have long felt deeply marginalized under Iraq's Shiite-led government and are taking up arms once again. Passions were ignited last week after a raid by security forces on a Sunni protest camp in the northern village of Hawija, a stronghold for the group, left dozens dead.
Biding its time, as Al Qaeda has continued to carry out car bombings and suicide attacks, the group has armed itself. It has enlisted recruits from the ranks of Mr. Hussein's Republican Guard units and devised a well-executed media campaign, with an online magazine, pamphlets and a social media presence, to hone its message that its members are the protectors of Sunni Arab nationalism and guardians against Iranian influence.
"They are playing the long game," said Michael Knights, an analyst at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, who has researched the Naqshbandia group. "This is the next step in the long game. J.R.T.N. is very well positioned to exploit what's going on."
Iraq careers from one crisis to another — clashes between Sunni gunmen and government forces continued over the weekend — but diplomats and experts say events may have finally pushed the country to the brink of a new civil war. Martin Kobler, the United Nations' representative in Iraq, recently warned that the country "could head towards the unknown." The International Crisis Group, a conflict-prevention organization, said Iraq "has begun a perilous, downward slide toward confrontation."
The fear that has gripped Iraq reflects the shifting nature of the recent violence. Random explosions have only a limited ability to challenge the authority of the state, partly because so many leaders, Sunnis and other citizens have disavowed such attacks. But what Iraqis are seeing now is entirely different: large numbers of Sunni men are picking up weapons, forming militia units and pledging to fight the government.
The likelihood of a civil war could hinge on two things: Prime Minister Nuri Kamal al-Maliki's ability to defuse the crisis by offering meaningful concessions to Sunnis, in the form of judicial overhaul and the release of Sunni prisoners held without charges; and the ability of groups like the Naqshbandia organization to persuade Sunnis to embark on a campaign of armed resistance.
In the wake of the Hawija raid, which set off a wave of revenge attacks against Iraqi security forces, some Sunnis say they are ready to join armed groups like the Naqshbandia organization to fight a government that they regard as loyal to Iran and unwilling to accommodate a meaningful role for Sunnis in public life. Sunnis, a minority in Iraq, lost the recent sectarian civil war here. But now their anger at the government has converged with a sense of empowerment wrought by the civil war in neighboring Syria, where Sunnis are fighting to topple the government, reviving their impulse for insurrection.
"What happened in Hawija is a trap that the government is falling into, to impose the same thing that is happening in Syria," said Ghazi al-Zaidi, 62, a Sunni in Diyala Province. "The violence is going to inflame Iraqis to prepare for a revolution against the government, and bring more sympathy to those who are forming forces that will fight against the government."
In its statements in recent days, the Naqshbandia group, which is said to be led by Izzat Ibrahim al-Douri, Mr. Hussein's top adviser and the highest-ranking member of the former government to elude capture, has sounded emboldened. It has said once-peaceful protesters have "joined our army and are fighting" under the group's banner and has vowed to march on Baghdad.
"The orders were issued to our groups and to our people to complete all preparation to march into our beloved capital, Baghdad, and we will strike relentlessly and with an iron fist on the heads of the traitors, agents and Safavid enemies of Arabism and Islam," the group said in a statement posted on its Web site. (The term "Safavid" is used to refer to Iran, which was ruled by the Safavid Empire in the 16th, 17th and early 18th centuries, and is perceived by Sunnis to dominate Iraq and its Shiite government.)
Yasir Ghazi contributed reporting from Baghdad, and an employee of The New York Times from Diyala Province, Iraq.