China’s Slowing Economy Puts Pressure on American Exporters

Eric Schultz for The New York Times

Joel Denbo, chief executive of Tennessee Valley Recycling, is trying to avoid layoffs among his work force of 175 people.

As China's economy cools, American exporters are increasingly feeling the chill.

Eric Schultz for The New York Times

The Tennessee Valley Recycling center in Decatur, Ala., was founded 105 years ago.

Cummins, the big Indiana engine maker, lowered its revenue forecast earlier this month and said it would eliminate 1,000 to 1,500 jobs by the end of the year, citing weak demand from China as a major reason. Schnitzer Steel Industries, a Portland, Ore., company that is one of the nation's biggest metal recyclers, is cutting 300 jobs, or 7 percent of its work force, as scrap exports to China plunge. And on Monday, Caterpillar reported lower sales in China and cut its global outlook for 2012.

Job reductions are hitting industries like mining, heavy machinery and scrap metal that prospered as China boomed, illustrating some of the risks to the broader American economy if growth continues to slow in what is now the world's second-largest economy. Last week the Chinese government announced that gross domestic product grew at an annual rate of 7.4 percent in the third quarter, the slowest pace in more than three years.

Even as the presidential candidates try to outdo each other in promising to get tough on Chinese exports to protect American jobs, experts say the more immediate threat to American workers may actually be the slowing of sales to China, which has bid up the price of much of what the United States sent overseas in recent years.

In fact, in the presidential debate on Monday evening, President Obama noted that exports to China had doubled during his term, even as both he and Mitt Romney again vowed to crack down on Chinese trade abuses.

Over all, China's growth is expected to decelerate to 7.7 percent this year from last year's breakneck 9.3 percent pace, adding to fears of a global slowdown, especially with much of Europe in recession and the economic recovery in the United States stubbornly anemic.

Already, softening demand has clipped American exports.

"There's definitely been an effect from slowing exports to China on U.S. exports," said Dean Maki, chief United States economist at Barclays. According to his analysis, the drop in exports to China alone is responsible for shaving 0.1 to 0.2 percentage point off the growth rate for the American economy, which expanded at an annualized rate of 1.3 percent in the second quarter.

The recent slowdown in export growth has probably contributed to the loss of 38,000 jobs in the American manufacturing sector since July, while the overall job market has improved and unemployment has fallen. The decline has been striking because exports, along with manufacturing, have been relative bright spots since the recession's end.

Wall Street will be looking for further signals about Chinese demand Tuesday, as export-dependent giants like 3M and DuPont report results and discuss their business outlook. Earlier, Alcoa, the first such major company to report third-quarter earnings, slightly lowered its estimate for global growth in aluminum demand because of slowing sales in China for products like trucks, trailers and aluminum cans this month.

On Monday, Caterpillar became the latest company to confirm that after a long boom, business in China is down. "I don't think there's any doubt that things got overheated in China," said Ed Rapp, Caterpillar's chief financial officer. "Our long-term view is still positive but things have slowed considerably in China in 2012."

The American outlook for growth and jobs will depend on many factors. A pickup in economic activity in Europe or the United States, for example, could help compensate for any weakness in China, the source of roughly 10 percent of the world's economic output in 2012. And the United States still brings in far more than it sends to China, importing nearly $4 in goods for every $1 it exports.

Nevertheless, the rapid growth rate there benefited many large American exporters and made China the third-largest buyer of American goods after Canada and Mexico. In 2011, China imported $103.9 billion in American products, or 7 percent of worldwide American exports.

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