Miguel Vidal/Reuters
Mariano Rajoy, the Spanish prime minister, on Sunday.
MADRID — It has become Spain's version of Godot: waiting for Rajoy.
For various reasons, Mariano Rajoy, the country's prime minister, has deferred seeking help from a financial assistance program that Europe has tailored to Spain's needs. Many economists, analysts and business executives here are increasingly worried about the costs of further delay.
They warn that waiting to seek aid, and the uncertainty the delay engenders, threaten to push the economy deeper into recession. And that, they say, could increase the ultimate cost to Spain and Europe if the aid eventually needs to be granted under crisis conditions.
As long as Spain's borrowing costs remain below 6 percent, as they have since the European Central Bank said it would buy the country's bonds if asked, the Rajoy government might seem to have no reason to rush. But the downgrade of Spanish debt to near junk status last week by Standard & Poor's underscored the fragility of the country's finances. And the seeming political paralysis in Madrid may be reinforcing a wider economic stasis.
"The economy has stopped," said Ángel Berges, the chief executive of AFI, an economic consulting firm based in Madrid.
The indicators are grim: Cement production has reached its lowest level since the 1960s. Car sales are down 37 percent from last year. And on weekdays the public squares of Madrid are filled with the unemployed — young and old — whiling away the hours.
Even the wealthy are feeling the strain. In the boat slips of Barcelona, "For Sale" signs hang on nearly every moored yacht.
The bond-buying program that the central bank announced in early September is meant to help keep a lid on the borrowing costs of besieged countries like Spain, if they ask for the help. Under the plan, the big new European bailout fund, whose financial firepower is to eventually reach 500 billion euros, or $648 billion, would buy newly issued Spanish bonds directly in the government's auctions, while the central bank would stand ready to buy existing bonds in the secondary market.
Analysts said there was more at stake than the yield on Spain's government bonds. They pointed out that those lower interest rates would lead to reduced borrowing rates across the board, providing a cheaper source of financing for Spanish banks and corporations that could stimulate investment.
And yet Mr. Rajoy's reluctance to seek help has its own logic. To begin with, German officials have urged him to wait, as they have no desire to present yet another euro zone rescue package to their fed-up voters.
But Mr. Rajoy, a stolid, cautious man, has plenty of domestic reasons, too. Since coming to power in late 2011, his popularity has plummeted in the wake of a series of wrenching austerity programs. Now, with regional elections on Sunday in his home state of Galicia that could test the strength of his center-right Popular Party, Mr. Rajoy has every incentive to wait a bit longer to request help from Europe, which would bring with it further outside oversight of the Spanish budget.
"There is no pressure on us — we will take the decision when we know everything we need to know," said a senior government spokeswoman in Madrid, who declined to be identified by name as a matter of policy.
But analysts said that by waiting several more months, as many here predict will happen, Mr. Rajoy was playing a dangerous game. Not only will the economy continue to suffer from uncertainty, but Mr. Rajoy also runs the risk of being forced to seek help under the duress of a market panic, if bond investors once again begin to bet against Spain. Europe's intervention under that circumstance could lead it to demand even harsher policy measures — like the socially disruptive cuts in Spanish pensions that so far Mr. Rajoy has avoided.
"If you wait too long, you will be forced into a program that will have much tougher conditions — so better to ask for it now," said José Manuel Campa, who was secretary of state for the economy during the previous government and is now a professor at the IESE Business School at the University of Navarra in Madrid.
Borja Bauza contributed reporting.
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