Damon Winter/The New York Times
President Obama cast his early ballot Thursday in Chicago.
CHICAGO — This is what "grinding it out" looks like at President Obama's election headquarters: scores of young staff members intently clicking away at computer keyboards as they crunch gigabytes of data about which way undecided voters are leaning, where they can be reached, and when; strategists standing at whiteboards busily writing and erasing early voting numbers and turnout possibilities; a lonely Ping-Pong table.
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At President Obama's campaign headquarters in downtown Chicago, 2012 is the focus and every second is counted.
The wave of passion and excitement that coursed through Mr. Obama's headquarters here in 2008 has been replaced with a methodical and workmanlike approach to manufacturing the winning coalition that came together more organically and enthusiastically for him the last time, a more arduous task with no guarantee of success.
As Washington and the cable news commentariat breathlessly discuss whether Mitt Romney's post-debate movement in the polls has peaked, Mr. Obama's campaign technicians — and that's what many of them are — are putting as much faith in the multimillion-dollar machine they built for just such a close race as in the president himself.
"We are exactly where I thought we would be, in a very close election with 12 days left with two things to do and two things only: persuade the undecided and turn our voters out," said Jim Messina, 43, the president's technocratic campaign manager, slightly paler and more hunched than he was when the campaign began. Pointing to the rows of personnel outside his office on Thursday, he added, "Everything in that room has been focused on that."
Four years ago, Mr. Obama's political team here was preparing one of its trademark showstoppers: a half-hour prime-time program extolling Mr. Obama's character and plans across four networks, culminating in a live feed from a boisterous rally in Florida.
There will be no such razzmatazz this time around. Any extra money in this tight final phase of the election is being wired to Nevada and Florida for more Spanish-language ads, to Iowa and Ohio for more on-the-ground staff members, and to Google and Facebook for more microtargeted messaging to complacent, maybe even demoralized, young supporters.
Mr. Obama emphasized the importance of their task during a stop at a phone bank here in Chicago on Thursday, telling volunteers, "If we let up and our voters don't turn out, we could lose this election." He added quickly, "The good news is, if our voters do turn out, we will definitely win the election."
At the White House, it is clear that the action has moved to Chicago, with some staff members, who are legally prohibited from even wearing campaign buttons to work, pining to be on the trail and others whiling away the time preparing for the lame-duck Congressional wrangling on the budget impasse.
For Mr. Obama's campaign staff in a nondescript office tower here, the task now comes down to creating an electorate more favorable to Democrats than most major pollsters have assumed, with percentages of Obama-friendly black, Latino and young voters that rival those of 2008, at least enough to offset the large drop in support among other segments of the population, like independent men.
An ABC News/Washington Post tracking poll on Thursday had Mr. Romney with a 50-to-47-percent edge among likely voters nationwide, the first time the challenger had reached 50 percent in the poll. But Mr. Obama's aides here are at least projecting an air of confidence. They say their system, which they began building long before the Republican primaries, is exceeding expectations. Eleven days will tell whether they are bluffing.
After using their huge database to increase registration among favorable voting groups in crucial states, they are now pinpointing people who ordered absentee ballots and need a nudge to send them, or sporadic voters who indicated they would vote for the president but may need to be pushed to show up at their polling place.
Peter Baker contributed reporting from Chicago, and Mark Landler and Jackie Calmes from Washington.
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