He is 71 years old and has missed most of the campaign deadlines to run for public office, leaving his own mayoral hopes unrealized. So the question hanging over Raymond W. Kelly, the commissioner, is this: What comes next for the man whose run as leader of the New York Police Department has made him a nationally recognized figure?
Guessing Mr. Kelly's next move has never been easy. But for a man who keeps his own counsel and rarely seems unsure of himself, he seems somewhat ambivalent about what might lie ahead.
Mr. Kelly's wife, Veronica, is said to be eagerly awaiting her husband's departure from the long hours and endless demands of the commissioner's job, which Mr. Kelly has held under Mayor Michael R. Bloomberg since 2002.
But he appears conflicted about the prospect of leaving public life. That became clear this month when he was promoted as a possible candidate to be the next secretary of homeland security.
Representative Peter T. King, a Long Island Republican and member of the House Homeland Security Committee, said that after he spoke publicly in favor of Mr. Kelly's candidacy, he received a thank-you call from Mr. Kelly. Mr. King said he had expected Mr. Kelly to tell him that he was not interested in the job. That did not happen.
"He asked me to keep him apprised of what's happening," Mr. King said. It was one of the few times that Mr. Kelly had not dismissed another post, he added.
"To me," the representative said, "it said a lot that he didn't say knock it off, or it's not something I'm interested in."
The homeland security job is not the only candidacy that Mr. Kelly has sought to keep open. For years, he has been mentioned as a likely candidate for mayor, and he never tried too hard to stamp out the rumors.
But as the speculation about a mayoral bid finally began subsiding within the last year, Mr. Kelly continued to toy with the idea privately.
At lunch with a Republican campaign strategist, he came prepared to discuss particulars. "He pulled out a little notebook and had 50 questions he wanted me to answer," the consultant, Ed Rollins, recalled about the meeting that took place in the last year. "What type of chance I thought he had? Is it too late? Can he raise the money?"
Mr. Kelly's willingness to entertain the notion of a bid for mayor persisted well into June, as the state chairman of the Republican Party, Edward F. Cox, sought to draw him into the race.
Earlier this month, at a party in Southampton, Mr. Kelly managed to leave some partygoers with the impression that he had not entirely ruled out a mayoral bid, according to a person who attended the party.
Mr. Kelly has served as police commissioner longer than anyone else, leading the agency as the city confronted terrorism threats and drove violent crime down.
There is little evidence to suggest Mr. Kelly is slowing down under the demands of the job. News conferences and City Council hearings appear to leave him rejuvenated and energized, rather than tired.
In New York City, it has been a tradition for mayors to pick their own commissioners. Even if he were asked to stay on by Mr. Bloomberg's successor, it is not clear that he would want to; the next mayor is likely to seek more control over the Police Department, rather than give Mr. Kelly the autonomy that Mr. Bloomberg did.
It is not clear how likely a candidate Mr. Kelly is for the homeland security post.
President Obama wondered aloud about Mr. Kelly's current job satisfaction. "Mr. Kelly might be very happy where he is," the president said recently in a television interview. "But if he's not, I'd want to know about it," Mr. Obama said, adding that Mr. Kelly would be "very well qualified" for the job.
But praising Mr. Kelly does not mean that he is prepared to nominate him. Indeed, the Police Department's stop-and-frisk tactics as well as its aggressive surveillance practices in Muslim communities could raise concerns within Mr. Obama's own party.
Officials in the Obama administration played down the president's comment this week and said no decision was imminent.
Still, Mr. Kelly would not have trouble finding new work.
"Ray Kelly has the luxury of knowing he can go out and make a million dollars for himself at any time and he would be highly sought out from the private sector," Representative King said, "and that would be for a job with a lot less work."
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