BEIRUT, Lebanon — Two days after President Obama shocked Syrians by delaying expected American missile strikes, the country remains off balance, with the military still bracing, the rebels still hoping to capitalize on the confusion, civilians increasingly fleeing across the borders and everyone uncertain whether the attack has been called off for good.
Sana/Reuters
President Bashar al-Assad said there was "a risk of regional war" if the United States attacked Syria.
Businesses were open and shops busy in government-held areas around the country on Monday, residents said, but not all government troops had moved out of the schools and other civilian areas they had moved into ahead of the attacks that were expected Saturday. Anxiety and anticipation from that day lingered.
The fighting, which was in a noticeable lull on Saturday, appeared to be gearing back up. Antigovernment activists and state news media reported clashes across the country on Monday, while António Guterres, the United Nations high commissioner for refugees, said in an interview in Geneva on Monday that another rush of Syrians across the borders meant that roughly a third of the country's population had now been displaced; he estimated that the number of Syrians seeking refuge in neighboring countries had passed two million, with some 4.5 million being driven from their homes in Syria.
Both the government and the armed opposition have moved to capitalize on Mr. Obama's decision to wait for Congressional approval for a strike. The government has portrayed President Bashar al-Assad as a hero for facing down the American president, and his supporters have circulated jokes on social media mocking Mr. Obama; one campaign features high-quality videos of Syrians old and young using a vulgar phrase to tell him, essentially, to get lost. The military resumed heavy aerial bombardment of East Ghouta, the sprawling hinterland of Damascus that bore the brunt of the chemical attacks that American officials have blamed on Mr. Assad's government, which denies responsibility.
Rebels claimed to have taken new ground in the Qalamoun area north of Damascus and declared that they would push forward, while some of the government's personnel and weapons remained dispersed to avoid being targeted. The state news agency, SANA, said the military had killed foreign fighters as they tried to infiltrate areas closer to the capital.
Opposition figures have seized the moment to argue for a more comprehensive strike, backed by increased aid to their forces, to try to shift the balance in the conflict, which began two and a half years ago with peaceful protests but have deteriorated into civil war after bloody government crackdowns.
It is unclear how much the government's precautionary troop movements change the tactical picture, said Kamel Wazne, a political analyst who runs the Center for American Strategic Studies in Beirut, for the same reason that Mr. Obama's proposal for missile strikes without involving American ground troops may make little difference to the dynamic on the battlefield.
"Syria's new military doctrine is starting to resemble the resistance doctrine," Mr. Wazne said, referring to guerrilla tactics in which forces are dispersed and there is no center of gravity that can be easily taken out.
With the help of its allies Iran and Hezbollah, the Lebanese Shiite militant group, Mr. Assad's forces have adapted, shifting emphasis from a conventional army trained to repel an invasion to a counterinsurgency force made up of smaller mobile units made up of security forces and local militias, Mr. Wazne and other analysts said.
In the long run, the "militia-ization" of the security forces "contains the seeds of the regime's disintegration," said Emile Hokayem, a Middle East-based analyst at the International Institute of Strategic Studies, creating multiple power centers and armed groups with local interests that might eventually diverge from the government's. But for now, he said, the tactic is allowing the state to hold its ground.
Mr. Wazne said he expected that in coming days, the government would step up attacks on rebel-held areas around Damascus, seeking to shore up shaky areas where rebels might muster an attack should the United States strike.
In an interview to be published late Monday in the French newspaper Le Figaro, Mr. Assad warned of regional conflagration if the United States attacked Syria, and said France would face "repercussions" if it joined the campaign.
"Everyone will lose control of the situation once the powder keg explodes," he said. "Chaos and extremism will spread. There is a risk of regional war."
Reporting was contributed by employees of The New York Times from Damascus, Syria, and Beirut; Hwaida Saad from Beirut; Hala Droubi from Dubai, United Arab Emirates; Scott Sayare from Paris; and Nick Cumming-Bruce from Geneva.
This article has been revised to reflect the following correction:
Correction: September 2, 2013
An earlier version of this article misstated when the Syrian conflict began. It began two and a half years ago, not three and a half years ago.
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