India Ink: Live-Blogging the Vote Count in India

Written By Unknown on Jumat, 16 Mei 2014 | 13.07

Over five weeks and nine phases, 550 million votes were cast in the massive Indian parliamentary elections that will usher in a new government. On Friday, India Ink is following the vote count with regular updates.

2:00 A.M. A Video of B.J.P. Celebrations

A video by Amey Polekar for The New York Times from outside the B.J.P. headquarters in Delhi, where party workers and supporters celebrated with firecrackers and a band from Uttarakhand played the drums.

1:58 A.M. B.J.P. Coalition Leading in 315 Seats

Out of 520 seats counted, the B.J.P. and its pre-poll allies are leading in 315 seats as of 11:27 a.m., according to the Election Commission.

1:53 A.M. An Aam Aadmi Party Supporter in Delhi Keeps the Faith

At the Aam Aadmi Party headquarters in Delhi, where Arvind Kejriwal gave his famous resignation speech just three months ago, Inderjit Sachdeva, an auto-rickshaw driver came from the city of Narela, 40 kilometers away, and he doesn't plan on working today. "I just want to be here with the other A.A.P. faithful," he said. He spoke about his commitment to the Aam Aadmi Party, and his faith that it would win the next Delhi state assembly elections.

"The biggest thing is that we've driven out Congress," he said. "The B.J.P.'s marketing team won this election. From tomorrow Kejriwal should start his national campaign and be even louder. And definitely in the coming Delhi elections we'll get a pure majority. I have no doubt."

Max Bearak

1:47 A.M. Congress Party Chief Minister in Assam Said To Resign

In Assam, the Press Trust of India reports that the state's chief minister, Tarun Gogoi, will resign, taking full responsibility for the Congress party's debacle in the state. As of 11:10 a.m., the Congress party is leading in only three out of 14 seats, a traditional stronghold state for the party. The B.J.P., which had won four seats in 2009, is now leading in seven.

1:37 A.M. Young Voters Are Coming Out for B.J.P.

Ellen Barry of The New York Times wrote that a wave of new voters are coming out for the B.J.P. in India, voters too young to be affected by previous blots on the party's reputation.

But Mr. Modi seemed to benefit from changes in the electorate. Nearly 100 million new voters were registered ahead of this vote, including a vast influx of young people, and turnout broke all previous records, hitting 66.4 percent.

Compared with their elders, these young voters were unmoved by the decade-old history of the Gujarat riots, which had prompted many Western governments, including the United States, to impose visa bans on Mr. Modi. They also proved far less emotionally bound to the Nehru-Gandhi dynasty, which has served as the backbone of the Congress party since India won its independence, surviving the wrenching assassinations of two of its members.

Shekhar Gupta, editor of The Indian Express, a daily newspaper, called them "post-ideological Indians."

"These people are born after Indira Gandhi's assassination," he said. "For a lot of them, the 2002 riots are not even a faint blur. What is imprinted on their memory is five years of nongovernance, and a massive loss of white-collar jobs. Once you have gotten used to 7 percent growth, to go down to 4.5 is a real recession."

1:31 A.M. Expert Weighs In on Numbers

On Monday, exit polls predicted anywhere from 249 to 340 seats for the B.J.P.-led alliance, but the tallies could be higher.

Karthik Shashidhar, resident quant specialist at the Takshashila Institution, credited the "Modi wave" in the cluster of states known as the Hindi heartland.

I think the exit and opinion polls were very conservative about the estimates of the Bharatiya Janata Party. It's therefore interesting to see that the B.J.P. is doing much better than what was predicted for them in the opinion and exit polls.

I think the Modi wave is very much present especially in the Hindi heartland states like Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh. The Congress party, at this stage, is likely to dip below 100 seats.

Vishnu Varma

1:21 A.M. B.J.P. Coalition Above 280

Though the Election Commission has the B.J.P. leading in 257 constituencies, with the party's major pre-poll partners it has a lead in more than 280 constituencies as of 10:45 a.m., which is above the majority mark.

1:16 A.M. B.J.P. Leads So Far in 250 Constituencies

The Election Commission is reporting that the B.J.P. leads in 250 seats out of a total 485 counted as of 10:39 a.m. If the party maintains this lead, it will be very close to the 272 seats needed for a majority. The Congress Party is leading in a mere 49 seats. The Congress Party has never dipped below 100 seats in India's independent history. Its lowest tally was 114 seats in 1999, when it lost the election to the B.J.P.

1:10 A.M. Empty Congress Party Headquarters in Mumbai

Contrast the celebrations at B.J.P. headquarters with the desolation at the Congress Party headquarters in Mumbai.

Congress office in Mumbai is deserted http://t.co/q7DVreLmkn

— Mansi Choksi (@mansi_choksi) 16 May 14

1:07 A.M. B.J.P. in Varanasi Jubilant as Modi Takes the Lead

In Varanasi, the Election Commission is reporting that Mr. Modi is leading Mr. Kejriwal by almost 20,000 votes as of 10:30 a.m. Party workers continue to celebrate at the Varanasi B.J.P. headquarters.

More people dancing to dholak outside BJP office in Varanasi. #IndiavotesNYT http://t.co/2RhrznV5qT

— Betwa Sharma (@betwasharma) 16 May 14

12:40 A.M. B.J.P. Leading in Delhi Count

The B.J.P. is leading in all the seven seats in the national capital. Harsh Vardhan is leading by 36,843 votes in Chandni Chowk according to the Election Commission totals as of 10:27 a.m. The Aam Aadmi Party is trailing second in all seven constituencies. If the Aam Aadmi Party wins no parliamentary constituencies in Delhi, it will be a stunning defeat for a party that defied all expectations in the state assembly elections in December and went on to lead the state government here. In a story in April, Vaibhav Vats wrote that the Aam Aadmi Party has lost its momentum.

But the Aam Aadmi Party may regret its failure to seize the opportunity to make a larger imprint in this election. A series of strategic errors cost the party momentum, and its national campaign was diminished by recklessness, an absence of clear strategy and overweening ambition.

In April, The New York Times profiled candidates in the Chandni Chowk constituency.

12:45 A.M. Surprise Guests at B.J.P. Headquarters

Also, there were some elephants; photo by Amey Polekar for The New York Times.

Look, who were attracted by the Ladoos at the BJP headquarters in New Delhi: http://t.co/vVyYcD5uEW

— Malavika Vyawahare (@MalavikaVy) 16 May 14

12:41 A.M. Puja at B.J.P. Headquarters in Delhi

From Amey Polekar for The New York Times, a puja outside B.J.P. headquarters.

A puja in progress outside the BJP headquarters in New Delhi: http://t.co/Z2BiSsstzG

— Malavika Vyawahare (@MalavikaVy) 16 May 14

12:34 A.M. Mamata Banerjee's Party with Big Lead in West Bengal

The Trinamool Congress party is leading in 19 out of 26 constituencies counted so far in the state of West Bengal, as of 10 a.m. according to the Election Commission. The Trinamool Congress party chief, Mamata Banerjee, has come under fire after thousands of investors lost money in a Ponzi scheme.

12:22 A.M. B.J.P. Supporters in Times Square, New York

Earlier this evening in New York, B.J.P. supporters lined up in Times Square.

Via WhatsApp : "Live Coverage of Indian Elections Results at Times Square, New York" http://t.co/Vh4END1lWr

— Hiren Kotwani (@HirenKotwani) 16 May 14

12:18 A.M. Strong Showing For the B.J.P. in Early Counting

As of 9:42 a.m. Indian time, the Election Commission is reporting tallies so far for more than half the seats (339) — the B.J.P. leads in 183 constituencies, and the Congress Party in just 39.

12:14 A.M. Indian Markets Jump Early, Hitting Record Highs

Both the benchmark stock indexes hit record highs in early trading on Friday. The Sensex surged 1,053.82 points, or 4.4 percent, to hit 24,959.42, and the 50-share Nifty benchmark ascended 313.75 points, or 4.4 percent, to reach 7,436.90 points, shortly after markets opened

India's stock markets have been experiencing a particularly bullish run in expectation of a decisive mandate. After exit polls forecast that the opposition Bharatiya Janata Party would secure more than 272 seats out of the 545-seat Lok Sabha, or lower house of Parliament, giving it a governing majority, the benchmark Indian stock indexes rose to then-record highs on Tuesday.

However, exit polls have been proven to be wrong in past elections, and analysts expect a high degree of volatility in the stock market as election results are announced in stages on Friday. On Thursday, India's central bank governor, Raghuram Rajan, said the Reserve Bank of India had created "prudential contingency plans" to deal with volatility in the markets and would "infuse liquidity if needed."

Neha Thirani Bagri

12:11 A.M. B.J.P. in Varanasi Says Modi Win "A Given"

In the B.J.P. office in Varanasi, where the contest between the Congress Party, the B.J.P. and the Aam Aadmi Party has turned into a symbolic fight between party leaders in the ancient holy city, a B.J.P. spokesperson, Nalin S. Kohli, articulated the differences between the B.J.P., through the leadership of Mr. Modi, and the Congress Party.

"There is a lot of hope and expectations given what we have seen in terms of price rise, unemployment, economic decline, women's security — basically a lack of governance on the part of Congress and U.P.A.," he said, referring to the United Progressive Alliance, led by Congress. "People saw in Modi the hope of development and good governance. It is with a degree of humility that I say Modi will win conclusively from Varanasi and that's a given."

Betwa Sharma

12:00 A.M. At the B.J.P. Office in Varanasi, Chants For Modi

From Betwa Sharma in the crucial constituency of Varanasi, where Arvind Kejriwal is hoping to defeat Narendra Modi in an upset. She reports that B.J.P. workers are jubilant and flashing victory signs, and the B.J.P. is leading in 20 constituencies out of the 33 counted so far in the state of Uttar Pradesh, as of 9:35 a.m.

"Modi Modi" workers start chanting and clapping at the BJP office in Varanasi. #IndiaVotesNYT http://t.co/EWUdqFzv8d

— Betwa Sharma (@betwasharma) 16 May 14

11:57 P.M. A History of Instability In Parliament

One thing to watch in the election results is whether a coalition will need to seek more parties in order to form a government. In India's democratic history, the lower house of Parliament, or Lok Sabha, has dissolved four times when a temperamental coalition partner withdrew.

Incidentally, this has never happened to the Indian National Congress party, which leads the current government and is widely expected to be trounced Friday.

Here's a chronological look at some of the tumultuous parliamentary elections in the recent past and what they mean for Friday's results:

1990: Chaos prevailed when a coalition of opposition parties formed the government and lost the support of the Bharatiya Janata Party after just a year. V.P. Singh was succeeded as prime minister by Chandra Shekhar, who was in power for only six months before he lost the support of Congress, and fresh elections were held.

1996: After the nationwide violence precipitated by the destruction in 1992 of an ancient mosque in Ayodhya in Uttar Pradesh, the Bharatiya Janata Party, led by Atal Bihari Vajpayee, had become a political pariah. With 161 seats, it was the single largest party, but it was not able to attract any major coalition partner. After 13 days of failed efforts, Mr. Vajpayee resigned as prime minister, making his term the shortest in India's history.

Congress supported a Third Front leader, H.D. Deve Gowda, who resigned after 11 months. After one more attempt by a third party to rule the country, fresh elections were held.

1998: Mr. Vajpayee's party once again won a majority, but again lost its coalition after 13 months. This time it was because Jayalalithaa Jayaram, the chief minister of Tamil Nadu, withdrew as a coalition partner by inviting Sonia Gandhi, the Congress party matriarch, to tea. The B.J.P. scrambled, but in the end lost the government by a single vote.

1999: Fresh elections were held. This time, the B.J.P. not only won but retained its majority, and Mr. Vajpayee completed his term in 2004.

What does all this have to do with the count on Friday? If Congress is indeed headed for a crushing defeat as exit polls and analysts widely predict, it is important to remember that non-Congress parties have historically had difficulty keeping the peace with temperamental coalition partners. If the B.J.P. is headed for a majority, the margins will be key. If the B.J.P. and its allies retain close to 272 seats on their own, a stable government is likely. But if it's much less, coalition partners will be crucial to a government's longevity.

Hari Kumar

11:55 P.M. Modi Leads in Gujarat

In Mr. Modi's home state of Gujarat, the B.J.P. is leading in 20 out of the 22 constituencies counted according to the Election Commission. Mr. Modi is leading by 132,901 votes in the constituency of Vadodara as of 9:23 a.m., according to the Election Commission.

11:50 P.M. Congress Leader Says It Looks Bleak

Television anchors have started questioning party leaders about early trends. In the first comments from the Congress Party, senior leader Abhishek Manu Singhvi told NDTV that the party would not concede defeat till 11 a.m., by which time party leaders hoped things would be clearer. "I agree that it looks bleak," Mr. Singhvi said.

As of 9:18 a.m. Indian time, the Election Commission is reporting that the B.J.P. is leading in 112 seats and the Congress Party in just 35, out of a total of 220 seats.

11:43 P.M. Before The Markets Open, An Economist Advises Caution

The Indian stock markets will open soon. While the Indian markets have been soaring to record highs on the anticipation of a change in leadership, analysts warn that the optimism might be overestimating the impact of a new government on India's struggling economy.

Leif Lybecker Eskesen, chief economist for India and Southeast Asia at HSBC Global Research in Singapore, said in a phone interview:

It's important not to over-estimate how much impact the elections will have on the Indian economy in the short term. Essentially what has slowed down growth in India are structural factors and the lack of progress on the implementation of economic reforms. A new government, even one with a strong mandate, cannot instigate immediate change on either front.

It's going to take a while before you can line up structural reform and economic reform and get them through the political machinery, and implement them and they begin to have an effect on growth. The economy will not see much of a recovery in the current fiscal year. I think it's going to by the next fiscal year that we begin to see the impact of the changes made post election.

It's also important not to underestimate the impact of the elections from the medium-term perspective, say three years down the road, if a new government gets sufficient progress on structural and economic reforms over the next one to two years.

It is important for a new government to demonstrate that it has the political willingness to move forward with economic reforms. In the first couple of months of the new government it would be key for the new leadership to make progress on some key economic reforms that have been lingering for a while, such as implementing the goods and services tax, liberalizing foreign direct investment into the economy and taking the Land Acquisition Bill through.

Neha Thirani Bagri

11:39 P.M. A General in Ghaziabad

The former army chief General V.K. Singh looking busy at his campaign office in Ghaziabad, Uttar Pradesh. His competition is Raj Babbar, a popular former Bollywood actor for the Congress Party, and Shazia Ilmi of the Aam Aadmi Party.

Tracking the results with my team at Ghaziabad.. http://t.co/pajkhQCRqM

— Vijay Kumar Singh (@Gen_VKSingh) 16 May 14

11:33 P.M. AAP With the Lead In Four Seats in Punjab

The Aam Aadmi Party is leading in four seats in Punjab according to the Election Commission.

11:26 P.M. Election Commission Results–B.J.P. Leading in 28 Seats

Votes from the electronic voting machines are being counted. The Election Commission of India is reporting that as of 8:55 a.m. Indian time, the B.J.P. is leading in 34 seats, the Congress Party in 11.

11:12 P.M. Modi leading in Varanasi

CNN-IBN reports in a tweet that Mr. Modi is leading in Varanasi and Sonia Gandhi, the matriarch of the Congress Party, in Rae Bareli, Uttar Pradesh.

11:06 P.M. Security at B.J.P. HQ

Journalists are already staking out B.J.P. headquarters, where security is tight and where party workers, anticipating a win, ordered 300 kilograms of sweets.

Massive security at BJP HQ at Ashoka Road #MintElections #Results2014 http://t.co/4FpsNIjCs4

— Tarun Shukla (@shukla_tarun) 16 May 14

10:58 P.M. Graphic Explainer

As we wait for the votes to be counted, here's a helpful graphic explainer that the Carnegie Endowment produced. One of the best parts is the graphic that explains the relationship between the voters, the lower and upper houses of Parliament and the president, a relationship that's confusing even to those born here.

10:57 P.M. Postal Ballot Counting

Counting for the postal ballots has started. NDTV reports that the Bharatiya Janata Party-led alliance is leading in 48 constituencies out of 89 constituencies counted so far. The Congress Party's alliance is leading in 22 constituencies.

10:48 P.M. Regional Calculus

There are 545 lawmakers in India's lower house of Parliament, 543 of which are elected by voters. Any party gaining 272 of those seats, by itself or with allies, wins a majority, though a single party hasn't accomplished that feat since 1989. In a piece from Chennai in April, Ellen Barry of The New York Times wrote about this delicate arithmetic, and Mr. Modi's need to engage local politicians like Jayalalithaa Jayaram, the chief minister of Tamil Nadu.

But his path to the prime minister's office will depend on a familiar group of secondary politicians: regional satraps whose leverage derives from their ability to form or break a coalition government. Unless the B.J.P. wins the 272 seats necessary to govern alone, Mr. Modi will probably need the support of at least one of the "three ladies," a formidable group of horse-traders that includes Ms. Jayaram; Mamata Banerjee, the leader of West Bengal; and Mayawati, a former leader of Uttar Pradesh.

10:23 P.M. Scenarios for the Next Government

As the Election Commission counts the votes for 543 parliamentary constituencies, India Ink readers would do well to remember that anything could happen.

Exit polls released Monday have predicted a solid victory for a Bharatiya Janata Party-led alliance, but exit polls have been spectacularly wrong before. Any party or coalition of parties must gain 272 seats in the Lok Sabha, or lower house of Parliament, to achieve a majority and form a government.

Here are the possible scenarios for the next government:

1) The B.J.P. and its current allies — three major parties and about two dozen smaller parties — may cross the majority mark on their own. In that case, the president of India will invite the leader of B.J.P.'s parliamentary party to form the government.

2) The B.J.P. and its allies may fall short of a majority but still emerge as the single largest coalition. Around the 240-seat mark, it would become necessary for the coalition to corral powerful regional players. In this case, the president would invite the leader of the coalition to form the government. The coalition would have to prove on the floor of the Lok Sabha that it has a majority by the president's deadline.

The B.J.P. would then meet with smaller parties and strong regional leaders to get their support, which would likely include some deal-making, especially regarding cabinet positions. Jayalalithaa Jayaram's party in Tamil Nadu and Mamata Banerjee's in West Bengal are considered two important but mercurial players in this scenario.

3) If the B.J.P. and its allies fall significantly short of a majority and fail to come up with enough additional partners on the floor of the Lok Sabha, the president would ask the Indian National Congress-led government to continue while he starts a dialogue with other big parties.

An alternative coalition could be formed by the Congress party or by a so-called Third Front, a group of parties that doesn't include the two main national players. Any coalition would be asked prove it has a majority on the floor of the Lok Sabha.

4) If the alternative coalition also fails to get a majority, the president will continue to try to resolve the deadlock with party leaders. If no consensus emerges, the Lok Sabha will be dissolved, and fresh elections will be called. But this is the most unlikely outcome, as the Lok Sabha has never been dissolved immediately after elections in India's independent history.

Hari Kumar


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