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DealBook: Bill Gross Leaves Pimco, Reportedly Under Pressure, to Join Janus

Written By Unknown on Sabtu, 27 September 2014 | 13.07

Photo William H. Gross, the founder of the asset manager Pimco.Credit Jim Young/Reuters

The bond king heard rumblings of a palace coup.

William H. Gross, who helped build Pimco from scratch into a $2 trillion mutual fund behemoth over four decades, abruptly quit on Friday for a much smaller firm.

The surprising exit came after Mr. Gross learned in recent weeks that top executives at Pimco and Allianz, the German insurer that owns it, had grown tired of his leadership and were weighing a change.

Some executives were pushing for him to be removed as chief investment officer, said two people briefed on the matter. There was concern about his management style and that his increasingly erratic behavior — he appeared at a conference to give a speech wearing sunglasses and wrote an investor letter that was largely an elegy to his cat — was becoming a distraction.

An ouster like that would have been a startling end of a long career for the 70-year-old investor, who broadened the appeal of bond funds to smaller individual investors and made them a staple of pension plans and retirement accounts.

Mr. Gross had helped make Pimco a powerhouse in virtually every market for bonds in the world. In the process, he became the face of the firm and an elder statesman of sorts, as his monthly investment letters and numerous appearance on business television programs were closely followed by investors.

But this year has been a rough one for Mr. Gross.

The giant $221.6 billion bond fund, Pimco Total Return Fund, which Mr. Gross personally managed, has posted mediocre performance this year. Investors have pulled some $25 billion out of the fund this year and $68 billion over the last 16 months.

The Securities and Exchange Commission has been investigating whether a $3.6 billion exchange-traded fund actively managed by Mr. Gross inflated its performance numbers.

A little more than a week ago, seeing signs that his position was in peril, Mr. Gross began reaching out to others in the bond world to see if he could land another job.

One of those people Mr. Gross contacted was Jeffrey Gundlach, who himself was forced out of a major asset management firm in 2009 before co-founding his own firm, DoubleLine Capital.

Mr. Gross also reached out to the Janus Capital Group, led by Richard M. Weil, who had worked for Mr. Gross at Pimco.

Mr. Gundlach said on Friday that when he talked to Mr. Gross, the Pimco co-founder seemed angry and was convinced he was about to be fired.

"I was wondering if they would have the courage or audacity to fire him," said Mr. Gundlach, whose firm is one that could benefit if investor money continues to leave Pimco after the resignation of Mr. Gross. "They wanted him to resign and say something like, 'I'm leaving in six months.' Bill didn't want to do that."

The resignation of Mr. Gross, who is estimated to be worth $2.3 billion, took Wall Street by surprise.

John Brynjolfsson, a former longtime Pimco trader who now runs a hedge fund, Armored Wolf, said he was stunned by the news, saying, "I think Bill Gross loved Pimco more than himself."

Share of Janus soared 43 percent on the news that Mr. Gross was joining the firm to manage a new fund called the Janus Global Unconstrained Bond Fund. Mr. Gross will oversee the fund from an office that Janus, which is based in Denver, intends to open in Newport Beach, Calif., where Pimco has long been based.

The timing of the departure of Mr. Gross even seemed to catch Pimco and Allianz off guard, despite the behind-the-scenes planning to remove him. By late afternoon Friday, photographs of Mr. Gross, his biography and well-read monthly investment letters still appeared prominently displayed on the Pimco website.

Late Friday, Pimco began to reshape its organization without Mr. Gross at the helm. The firm said Daniel J. Ivascyn, who had been a deputy chief investment officer, would succeed Mr. Gross as group chief investment officer of the firm. To run the firm's flagship fund, the Total Return Fund, formerly managed by Mr. Gross, it will now take three people: Mark Kiesel, Scott Mather and Mihir Worah.

Mr. Gross said in a statement: "I look forward to returning my full focus to the fixed-income markets and investing, giving up many of the complexities that go with managing a large, complicated organization." Mr. Gross added that he wished his former colleagues at Pimco well.

An Allianz spokeswoman said the decision to leave the firm was made by Mr. Gross. Douglas M. Hodge, Pimco's chief executive, said the firm's succession plan was in place and would not be altered by the resignation of Mr. Gross.

"While we are grateful for everything Bill contributed to building our firm and delivering value to Pimco's clients, over the course of this year it became increasingly clear that the firm's leadership and Bill have fundamental differences about how to take Pimco forward," Mr. Hodge said.

With Mr. Gross and his onetime No. 2, Mohamed A. El-Erian, now both gone from Pimco, one of the world's biggest money managers suddenly has lost two of its most public faces in less than a year. Mr. El-Erian remains an employee of Allianz.

When Mr. El-Erian announced in January he was resigning from Pimco, it came as shock to the market. How investors — both retail and institutional — will react to the exit of Mr. Gross in the coming days is still unclear.

"We will see a range of reactions," said Michael Herbst, a Morningstar director of research for active strategies for North America. "One thing to note is that while Bill Gross gets a lot of the headlines, Pimco isn't a one-man show."

Robert D. Klausner, a lawyer in Florida who represents a number of public pension funds, said two pension funds had already contacted him about beginning to examine whether they should remain invested with Pimco.

An official with one state pension fund said a Pimco representative had contacted him to discuss Mr. Gross's departure.

Todd Rosenbluth, director of mutual fund research at Standard & Poor's Capital IQ, said the big questions for Pimco were whether investors would have confidence in the new management team and whether other Pimco portfolio managers would follow Mr. Gross out the door.

At Pimco, Mr. Gross ran the firm with something of an iron fist, preferring a quiet trading floor. He was displeased if employees were not at their desks before dawn in California to prepare for the start of the trading day in New York. The Wall Street Journal reported earlier this year that Mr. Gross and Mr. El-Erian openly feuded at times — a rarity at Pimco.

In recent years, Mr. Gross's Total Return Fund has drawn criticism for its reliance on derivatives — future and credit-default swaps — to get exposure to bonds. Historically, the fund had long used derivatives to buy bonds, in part, because it needed to make extremely large purchases because of its mammoth size.

Still, Mr. Gross's long-term track record is an enviable one. Over the last 10 years, the Total Return Fund has returned 6 percent, besting the comparable 1.4 percent gain in the Barclays U.S. Aggregate Bond Index over the same time period. The decade-long performance of the Total Return Fund puts the portfolio in the top 5 percent in its category, according to Morningstar.

It was those years of performance, coupled with frequent appearances on television, that crowned Mr. Gross with the unofficial title of the bond king.

A version of this article appears in print on 09/27/2014, on page A1 of the NewYork edition with the headline: King of Bonds Abruptly Leaves A Mutual Fund Giant He Built .


13.07 | 0 komentar | Read More

Driven Into Debt: Miss a Payment? Good Luck Moving That Car

Written By Unknown on Kamis, 25 September 2014 | 13.07

Credit John Gurzinski for The New York Times

The thermometer showed a 103.5-degree fever, and her 10-year-old's asthma was flaring up. Mary Bolender, who lives in Las Vegas, needed to get her daughter to an emergency room, but her 2005 Chrysler van would not start.

The cause was not a mechanical problem — it was her lender.

Ms. Bolender was three days behind on her monthly car payment. Her lender, C.A.G. Acceptance of Mesa, Ariz., remotely activated a device in her car's dashboard that prevented her car from starting. Before she could get back on the road, she had to pay more than $389, money she did not have that morning in March.

"I felt absolutely helpless," said Ms. Bolender, a single mother who stopped working to care for her daughter. It was not the only time this happened: Her car was shut down that March, once in April and again in June.

This new technology is bringing auto loans — and Wall Street's version of Big Brother — into the lives of people with credit scores battered by the financial downturn.

Auto loans to borrowers considered subprime, those with credit scores at or below 640, have spiked in the last five years. The jump has been driven in large part by the demand among investors for securities backed by the loans, which offer high returns at a time of low interest rates. Roughly 25 percent of all new auto loans made last year were subprime, and the volume of subprime auto loans reached more than $145 billion in the first three months of this year.

But before they can drive off the lot, many subprime borrowers like Ms. Bolender must have their car outfitted with a so-called starter interrupt device, which allows lenders to remotely disable the ignition. Using the GPS technology on the devices, the lenders can also track the cars' location and movements.

The devices, which have been installed in about two million vehicles, are helping feed the subprime boom by enabling more high-risk borrowers to get loans. But there is a big catch. By simply clicking a mouse or tapping a smartphone, lenders retain the ultimate control. Borrowers must stay current with their payments, or lose access to their vehicle.

"I have disabled a car while I was shopping at Walmart," said Lionel M. Vead Jr., the head of collections at First Castle Federal Credit Union in Covington, La. Roughly 30 percent of customers with an auto loan at the credit union have starter interrupt devices.

Now used in about one-quarter of subprime auto loans nationwide, the devices are reshaping the dynamics of auto lending by making timely payments as vital to driving a car as gasoline.

Seizing on such technological advances, lenders are reaching deeper and deeper into the ranks of Americans on the financial margins, with interest rates on some of the loans exceeding 29 percent. Concerns raised by regulators and some rating firms about loose lending standards have disturbing echoes of the subprime-mortgage crisis.

As the ignition devices proliferate, so have complaints from troubled borrowers, many of whom are finding that credit comes at a steep price to their privacy and, at times, their dignity, according to interviews with state and federal regulators, borrowers and consumer lawyers.

Some borrowers say their cars were disabled when they were only a few days behind on their payments, leaving them stranded in dangerous neighborhoods. Others said their cars were shut down while idling at stoplights. Some described how they could not take their children to school or to doctor's appointments. One woman in Nevada said her car was shut down while she was driving on the freeway.

Beyond the ability to disable a vehicle, the devices have tracking capabilities that allow lenders and others to know the movements of borrowers, a major concern for privacy advocates. And the warnings the devices emit — beeps that become more persistent as the due date for the loan payment approaches — are seen by some borrowers as more degrading than helpful.

"No middle-class person would ever be hounded for being a day late," said Robert Swearingen, a lawyer with Legal Services of Eastern Missouri, in St. Louis. "But for poor people, there is a debt collector right there in the car with them."

Lenders and manufacturers of the technology say borrowers consent to having these devices installed in their cars. And without them, they say, millions of Americans might not qualify for a car loan at all.

A Virtual Repo Man

Photo "I have disabled a car while I was shopping at Walmart," said Lionel M. Vead Jr., the head of collections at First Castle Credit Union in Covington, La., who said that starter interrupt devices and GPS tracking technology had made his job easier.Credit Cheryl Gerber for The New York Times

From his office outside New Orleans, Mr. Vead can monitor the movements of about 880 subprime borrowers on a computerized map that shows the location of their cars with a red marker. Mr. Vead can spot drivers who have fallen behind on their payments and remotely disable their vehicles on his computer or mobile phone.

The devices are reshaping how people like Mr. Vead collect on debts. He can quickly locate the collateral without relying on a repo man to hunt down delinquent borrowers.

Gone are the days when Mr. Vead, a debt collector for nearly 20 years, had to hire someone to scour neighborhoods for cars belonging to delinquent borrowers. Sometimes locating one could take years. Now, within minutes of a car's ignition being disabled, Mr. Vead said, the borrower calls him offering to pay.

"It gets their attention," he said.

Mr. Vead, who has a coffee cup that reads "The GPS Man," has been encouraging other credit unions to use the technology. And the devices — one version was first used to help pet owners keep track of their animals — are catching on with a range of subprime auto lenders, including companies backed by private equity firms and credit unions.

Photo Using his computer or cellphone, Mr. Vead can monitor the movements of about 880 subprime borrowers, and if they are late in making a payment, he can disable their vehicles.Credit Cheryl Gerber for The New York Times

Mr. Vead says that first, he tries reaching a delinquent borrower on the phone or in person. Then, only after at least 30 days of missed payments, he typically shuts down cars when they are parked at the borrower's house or workplace. If there is an emergency, he says, he will turn a car back on.

None of the borrowers or consumer lawyers interviewed by The New York Times raised concerns about the way Mr. Vead's credit union uses the devices. But other lenders, they said, were not as considerate, marooning drivers in far-flung places and often giving no advance notice of a shut-off. Lenders say that they exercise caution when disabling vehicles and that the devices enable them to extend more credit.

Without the use of such devices, said John Pena, general manager of C.A.G. Acceptance, "we would be unable to extend loans because of the high-risk nature of the loans."

The growth in the subprime market has been good for the devices' manufacturers. At Lender Systems of Temecula, Calif., which sells a range of starter interrupt devices, revenue has more than doubled so far this year, buoyed by an influx of new credit union customers, said David Sailors, the company's executive vice president.

Mr. Sailors noted that GPS tracking on his company's devices could be turned on only when borrowers were in default — a policy, he said, that has cost it business.

The devices, manufacturers say, are selling well because they are proving effective in coaxing payments from even the most troubled borrowers.

A leading device maker, PassTime of Littleton, Colo., says its technology has reduced late payments to roughly 7 percent from nearly 29 percent. Spireon, which offers a GPS device called the Talon, has a tool on its website where lenders can calculate their return on capital.

Fears of Surveillance

While the devices make life easier for lenders, their ability to track drivers' movements has struck a nerve with a number of borrowers and some government authorities, who say they are a particularly troubling example of personal-data gathering and surveillance.

At its extreme, consumer lawyers say, such surveillance can compromise borrowers' safety. In Austin, Tex., a large subprime lender used a device to track down and repossess the car of a woman who had fled to a shelter to escape her abusive husband, said her lawyer, Amy Clark Kleinpeter.

The move to the shelter violated a clause in her auto loan contract that restricted her from driving outside a four-county radius, and that prompted the lender to send a tow truck to take back the vehicle. If the lender could so easily locate the client, Ms. Kleinpeter said, what was stopping her husband?

"She was terrified her husband would be able to find out where she was from the tow truck company," said Ms. Kleinpeter, a consumer lawyer in Austin, who said a growing number of her clients had the devices installed in their cars.

Lenders and manufacturers emphasize that they have strict guidelines in place to protect drivers' information. The GPS devices, they say, are predominantly intended to help lenders and car dealerships locate a car if they need to repossess it, not to put borrowers under surveillance.

Spireon says it can help lenders identify signs of trouble by analyzing data on a borrower's behavior. Lenders using Spireon's software can create "geo-fences" that alert them if borrowers are no longer traveling to their regular place of employment — a development that could affect a person's ability to repay the loan.

A Spireon spokeswoman said the company takes privacy seriously and works to ensure that it complies with all state regulations.

Corinne Kirkendall, vice president for compliance and public relations for PassTime, which has sold 1.5 million devices worldwide, says the company also calls lenders "if we see an excessive use" of the tracking device.

Even though the device made her squeamish, Michelle Fahy of Jacksonville, Fla., agreed to have one installed in her 2001 Dodge Ram because she needed the pickup truck for her job delivering pizza.

Shortly after picking up her four children from school one afternoon in January, Ms. Fahy, 42, said she pulled into a gas station to fill up. But when she tried to restart the truck, she was not able to do so.

Then she looked at her cellphone and noticed a string of missed calls from her lender. She called back and asked, "Did you just shut down my truck?" and the response was "Yes, I did."

To get her truck restarted, Ms. Fahy had to agree to pay the $255.99 she owed. As she pleaded for more time, her children grew confused and worried. "They were in panic mode," she said. Finally, she said she would pay, and within minutes she was able to start her engine.

Borrowers are typically provided with codes that are supposed to restart the vehicle for 24 hours in case of an emergency. But some drivers say the codes fail. Others say they are given only one code a month, even though their cars are shut down more often.

Some drivers take matters into their own hands. Homemade videos on the Internet teach borrowers how to disable their devices, and Spireon has started selling lenders a fake GPS device called the Decoy, which is meant to trick borrowers into thinking they have removed the actual tracking system, which is installed along with the Decoy.

Oscar Fabela Jr., who said his 2007 Dodge Magnum was routinely shut down even when he was current on his $362 monthly car payment, discovered a way to circumvent the system.

That trick came in handy when he returned from seeing a movie with a date, only to find his car would not start and the payment reminder was screaming like a burglar alarm.

"It sounded like I was breaking into my own car," said Mr. Fabela, 26, who works at a phone company in San Antonio.

While his date turned the ignition switch, Mr. Fabela used a screwdriver to rig the starter, allowing him to bypass the starter interruption device.

Mr. Fabela's car eventually started, but it was their only date.

"It didn't end well," he said.

Government Scrutiny

Photo "I felt like even though I made my payments and was never late under my contract, these people could do whatever they wanted," said T. Candice Smith, who testified before the Nevada Legislature that her car, which had a starter interrupt device installed, was shut down while she was driving on a Las Vegas freeway, nearly causing her to crash.Credit John Gurzinski for The New York Times

Across the country, state and federal authorities are grappling with how to regulate the new technology.

Consumer lawyers, including dozens whose clients' cars have been shut down, argue that the devices amount to "electronic repossession" and their use should be governed by state laws, which outline how much time borrowers have before their cars can be seized.

State laws governing repossession typically prevent lenders from seizing cars until the borrowers are in default, which often means that they have not made their payments for at least 30 days.

The devices, lawyers for borrowers argue, violate those laws because they may effectively repossess the car only days after a missed payment. Payment records show that Ms. Bolender, the Las Vegas mother with the sick daughter, was not in default in any of the four instances her ignition was disabled this year.

PassTime and the other manufacturers say they ensure that their devices comply with state laws. C.A.G. declined to comment on Ms. Bolender's experiences.

State regulators are also examining whether a defective device could endanger the borrowers or other drivers on the road, according to people with knowledge of the matter who spoke on the condition of anonymity.

Last year, Nevada's Legislature heard testimony from T. Candice Smith, 31, who said she thought she was going to die when her car suddenly shut down, sending her careening across a three-lane Las Vegas highway.

"It was horrifying," she recalled.

Ms. Smith said that her lender, C.A.G. Acceptance, had remotely activated her ignition interruption device.

"It's a safety hazard for the driver and for all others on the road," said her lawyer, Sophia A. Medina, with the Legal Aid Center of Southern Nevada.

Mr. Pena of C.A.G. Acceptance said, "It is impossible to cause a vehicle to shut off while it is operating," He added, "We take extra precautions to try and work with and be professional with our customers." While PassTime, the device's maker, declined to comment on Ms. Smith's case, the company emphasized that its products were designed to prevent a car from starting, not to shut it down while it was in operation.

"PassTime has no recognition of our devices shutting off a customer while driving," Ms. Kirkendall of PassTime said.

In her testimony, Ms. Smith, who reached a confidential settlement with C.A.G., said the device made her feel helpless.

"I felt like even though I made my payments and was never late under my contract, these people could do whatever they wanted," she testified, "and there was nothing I could do to stop them."

Articles in this series are examining the boom in subprime auto loans.

A version of this article appears in print on 09/25/2014, on page A1 of the NewYork edition with the headline: Miss a Payment? Good Luck Moving That Car.


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DealBook: Treasury Takes a Modest Step on Inversions

Written By Unknown on Rabu, 24 September 2014 | 13.07

Photo Treasury Secretary Jacob J. Lew announced rules intended to curb inversions.Credit Carolyn Kaster/Associated Press

The Treasury Department's notice of proposed regulations to curb so-called inversions is smart and narrowly tailored. The new rules would take away some — but not all — of the reasons that a company might want to give up United States citizenship.

Indeed, most proposed inversions are likely to go forward, especially those that make sense as a business matter above and beyond the tax benefits, some of which the new rules will curtail.

Companies still searching for a suitable foreign merger partner will find it harder make a match. And in some cases, the loss of tax benefits will mean the search is not lucrative enough to be worth the bother.

Under current law, inversions require merging with a foreign company, with a new "inverted" foreign company becoming the parent company of the combined operations. Since 2004, it has not been possible to do an inversion purely on paper. A United States corporation looking to reincorporate abroad must find a real life merger partner at least one-quarter its size. That way, less than 80 percent of the shareholders of the combined entity will be former shareholders of the United States corporation, thereby clearing one of the critical hurdles of the current inversion rules as laid out in Section 7874 of the tax code.

Finding a suitable merger partner is a friction — a nontax business factor that constrains tax planning — because many mergers do not make sense from a business perspective. The goal of tax planning, after all, is to maximize after-tax income, not to minimize tax liability. It might be difficult for a pharmaceutical company to integrate its business with, say, a company that makes pants. It's not that much easier for companies in the same industry; merger synergies are often elusive. In the recent wave of inversions, however, more companies have been able to overcome the frictions of existing law and pursue the tax savings that an inversion promises.

The Treasury Department's strategy is modest: increase frictions and take away some of the tax benefits of inversions.
Consider the three main reasons a United States corporation might try to become a foreign corporation for tax purposes.

Avoid United States tax on future foreign earnings

Our tax system attempts to tax United States citizens, including corporations, on their worldwide income with a credit for any foreign taxes paid. To the extent that business income derived from foreign sources is untaxed by foreign jurisdictions, those profits may be deferred indefinitely by keeping the profits overseas. The profits are taxed when cash is repatriated.

The first motivation to give up citizenship is to avoid taxes on this "residual" foreign source income.

This tax on residual income is baked into the current structure of the tax code and beyond the Treasury's legal authority to change. Many in Congress wish to remove this incentive to invert by changing to a "territorial" tax system, under which the United States would give up any claim to business income from foreign sources. Such a unilateral disarmament would have to come from Congress, not the Treasury, and may not be good tax policy in any event.

Instead, the Treasury's tactic is to increase frictions, making it more difficult to invert. Congress established two frictions earlier. First, shareholders of inverting corporations must pay an "exit tax" under section 367, which is painful if the stock they hold has appreciated. Second, under section 7874, a United States company must find a suitable foreign merger partner so that less than 80 percent of the shareholders of the combined entity would be former shareholders of the United States company.

The "exit tax" has proved largely ineffective as a friction because the long-term benefits of an inversion can often exceed the short-term cost to shareholders.

The 80 percent rule — 60 percent in some circumstances — has been more effective. For companies seeking to minimize the friction, the ideal merger partner, therefore, would be exactly one-fourth the size of the United States company seeking to invert.

Clever deal makers have figured out that size can be adjusted on either size of the equation. The United States company can "skinny down" by paying a special dividend to shareholders. Or the domestic company or the foreign target can spin off just the right amount of assets into a new subsidiary. The proposed regulations would disregard some, but not all, of these types of adjustments. Treasury's goal here is primarily forward-looking. By narrowing the pool of potential merger partners, fewer companies will find that it makes business sense to invert.

Similarly, deal makers have sought to reduce frictions by making the merger partner into a cash box, holding mostly securities or other passive assets. The proposed regulations would eliminate that strategy.

Avoid United States tax on past foreign earnings

Inversions are also motivated by a desire to repatriate deferred foreign earnings without paying tax. This is perhaps the most practically significant portion of the proposed regulations because the new rules would take away much of the motivation for inverting for companies, like Medtronic, with a lot of overseas cash. The regulations seek to end so-called hopscotch loans, where inverted companies gain access to previously untaxed foreign earnings, and certain other actions that move earnings out from under the United States tax base.

Avoid United States tax on income derived in the United States

Inversions are also motivated by the possibility of using tax gamesmanship to avoid United States tax on United States source income, primarily by aggressive use of transfer pricing rules and by using related party loans to strip earnings out of United States subsidiaries. The proposed regulations do not address earning stripping, although the Treasury has not ruled out further regulatory action in the future.

Treasury may opt to wait for Congress to take the lead on earnings stripping. After all, not only foreign companies can exploit these rules. United States companies play the same game. It is not necessary for Apple, for example, to become an inverted Irish company to avoid paying a lot of United States tax.

In sum, the proposed regulations will deter future inversions where the primary motivation is tax savings. Where there is a significant business reason for the merger, however, the new rules will most likely not affect the deal. Burger King's proposed merger with Tim Hortons is a good example.

It is harder to predict what might happen with deals that appear to be mostly motivated by taxes, like Medtronic's proposed merger with Covidien. The deal documents include an "out" if new rules would treat the inverted company as a United States corporation. But that is not the effect of the new rules. Instead, the rules would reduce the effectiveness of the inversion by denying access to Medtronic's offshore cash.

Whatever happens with the inversions that have already been proposed, the new rules will help deter new deals that lack a real business purpose.

Victor Fleischer is a professor of law at the University of San Diego, where he teaches classes on corporate tax, tax policy, and venture capital and serves as the director of research for the Graduate Tax Program. His research focuses on how tax affects the structuring of venture capital, private equity, and corporate transactions. Twitter: @vicfleischer


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Well: Is Exercise Bad for Your Teeth?

Photo Credit Getty Images
Phys Ed

Gretchen Reynolds on the science of fitness.

Vigorous exercise is good for almost all of the body — except perhaps the teeth, according to a surprising new study of athletes. The study, published in The Scandinavian Journal of Medicine & Science in Sports, found that heavy training may contribute to dental problems in unexpected ways.

There have been hints in the past that athletes could have a heightened risk for cavities and other oral issues. In a study published last year in The British Journal of Sports Medicine, dentists who examined 278 athletes at the 2012 Summer Olympics in London reported that a majority displayed "poor oral health," including high levels of tooth decay, often in conjunction with gum disease and erosion of the tooth enamel. The athletes came from the United States and Europe as well as less-developed parts of the world, and most had access to good-quality dentistry, although many had not visited a dentist in the last year.

The study didn't examine why the athletes were at such high risk of dental problems, although many of us might assume that sugary sports drinks and bars would be a primary cause. Other studies, however, have found little if any link between consuming sports drinks and developing cavities.

So to better understand what is going on inside the mouths of athletes, researchers with the dental school at University Hospital Heidelberg in Germany and other institutions recruited 35 competitive triathletes and 35 age- and gender-matched healthy adults who were not athletes.

All of the volunteers visited the hospital's dental lab for a full oral examination, including collection of their saliva after they had been sitting quietly. They also completed questionnaires about their diets, including consumption of sports drinks and other beverages, their normal oral hygiene routines, and their exercise habits, if any.

Fifteen of the athletes also completed an increasingly strenuous run of about 35 minutes on an outdoor track, during which their saliva was collected several times.

Then the researchers compared the groups' teeth and spit, which turned out to be different in telling ways.

Compared with the control group, the athletes showed significantly greater erosion of their tooth enamel. They also tended to have more cavities, with the risk increasing as an athlete's training time grew. Over all, the more hours that an athlete spent working out, the more likely he or she was to have cavities.

The researchers found no correlation, however, between consuming sports drinks or any other elements of the athletes' diets and their oral health.

They also found no differences in the amount or chemical make-up of their volunteers' saliva after the athletes and the non-athletes had been at rest.

But that situation changed when the athletes worked out. During their experimental runs, the amount of saliva that they produced progressively lessened, meaning that their mouths became drier, regardless of whether they consumed water or other beverages during the workout. The saliva's chemical composition also shifted, growing more alkaline as the workout continued. Excess alkalinity in saliva is thought to contribute to the development of tartar plaques on teeth and other problems.

The extent of the changes in the athletes' saliva during a workout were something of a surprise, said Dr. Cornelia Frese, a senior dentist at University Hospital Heidelberg, who led the study.

"We had thought sports drinks and nutrition might have the most detrimental influence on dental decay," she said, "but we saw no direct link" between them. Instead, it was the changes in saliva during exercise that differentiated the athletes' mouths from those of the control group. Since saliva "has a very protective function" for teeth, Dr. Frese said, having less of it or a chemically different version during exercise could be problematic.

But, she cautions, this study was small, short-term and in many ways unrepresentative of the oral risks most of us would likely face from exercise. "The athletes participating in our study had a mean weekly training time of nine hours," she said. They were, in technical parlance, hard-core.

"All we can say" based on the data from this group, she said, "is that prolonged endurance training might be a risk factor for oral health." Whether less frequent or intense exercise would likewise affect oral health is uncertain but unlikely, Dr. Frese said.

Still there are a few precautions that anyone who exercises and has concerns about their oral health might want to take, she said. Drinking water during workouts could be a start, although the connection between hydration and oral health is not scientifically established, Dr. Frese said. More generally, brush and floss, as you know you should. And if you're a serious endurance athlete, consider visiting a dentist with a specialty in sports dentistry, she said. The goal is to ensure that your teeth remain in as good shape as the rest of you.


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Public Editor's Journal: An Article on Shonda Rhimes Rightly Causes a Furor

Written By Unknown on Selasa, 23 September 2014 | 13.07

The article on the television producer Shonda Rhimes hadn't yet appeared in Sunday's paper, but the virtual world was ablaze in protest over it on Friday after it was published online.

Written by the longtime TV critic Alessandra Stanley, its first paragraph – with a reference to Ms. Rhimes as an "Angry Black Woman" – struck many readers as completely off-base. Many called it offensive. Some went further, saying it was racist.

Another reference to the actress Viola Davis as "less classically beautiful" than lighter-skinned African American actresses immediately inspired a mocking hashtag. (Ms. Stanley's article was pegged to a show, starring Ms. Davis, that will debut this week on ABC, "How to Get Away with Murder.")

One email from Patricia Washington, a longtime Times subscriber, addressed Dean Baquet, the executive editor, with a copy sent to me. She wrote:

I am deeply offended by the story written by Alessandra Stanley about Shonda Rhimes being an angry black woman. At first, I tried to give Ms. Stanley the benefit of the doubt and thought that she was attempting to be irreverent. Then I realized that she was being racist, ignorant, and arrogant. It is interesting that I have never seen any of Ms. Stanley's stories refer to any white producers of TV or film programs in racist, stereotypical terms. As awful as the story is, she got her facts wrong because Shonda Rhimes is not the executive producer of the new show, "How To Get Away With Murder."

I am a black woman and a lawyer. I have worked very hard to achieve in my profession and earn respect. I live in a very nice suburban community in Maryland. And yet, none of that makes one bit of difference because a New York Times writer can make whatever offhanded, racist opinions about a successful TV producer who is a black woman she cares to make, and because she has the protection of The New York Times behind her, can publish it. Because Ms. Stanley is a New York Times writer, her story has reached a national audience. Why is Ms. Stanley allowed to characterize Ms. Rhimes as she did and get away it? Why is she allowed to characterize Viola Davis as she did in her story and get away with it?

Ms. Stanley's story was a backhand to me and it hurts. For the first time, I am considering cancelling my New York Times subscription because this story is much more than disagreeing with the writer's opinion. This story denigrated every black woman in America, beginning with Shonda Rhimes, that dares to strive to make a respectable life for herself. No matter what we do, as far as Ms. Stanley is concerned, we will always be angry and have potent libidos as we have been perceived from slavery, to Jim Crow, and sadly in September 2014, the 21st century.

Please remove Ms. Stanley from the New York Times. None of us who read your paper should ever be subjected to this.

(Note to readers: Shonda Rhimes is, in fact, an executive producer of How to Get Away with Murder. The Times has corrected a headline and caption that referred to her as the creator of the show.)

I have asked Ms. Stanley for further comment (she has said that her intentions were misunderstood, and seemed to blame the Twitter culture for that, with a reference to 140 characters), and asked her to describe her interactions with Times editors before the article was published. I have also asked the culture editor, Danielle Mattoon, to discuss the article and the editing process. And I have asked Mr. Baquet for comment.

There are some big questions here – about diversity, about editing procedures and about how The Times deals with stories about women and race. They are worth exploring in depth.

This is a preliminary post, and I'll be adding to it later today, or posting again. But I'll say this much: The readers and commentators are correct to protest this story. Intended to be in praise of Ms. Rhimes, it delivered that message in a condescending way that was – at best – astonishingly tone-deaf and out of touch.

Update, 12:58 p.m., Monday: Early Monday afternoon, I spoke to the culture editor, Danielle Mattoon. She told me that arts and culture editors are well aware of the response to the piece, and she offered words of regret, as well as an explanation and a resolution for the future.

"There was never any intent to offend anyone and I deeply regret that it did," Ms. Mattoon said. "Alessandra used a rhetorical device to begin her essay, and because the piece was so largely positive, we as editors weren't sensitive enough to the language being used."

Ms. Mattoon called the article "a serious piece of criticism," adding, "I do think there were interesting and important ideas raised that are being swamped" by the protests. She told me that multiple editors — at least three — read the article in advance but that none of them raised any objections or questioned the elements of the article that have been criticized.

"This is a signal to me that we have to constantly remind ourselves as editors of our blind spots, what we don't know, and of how readers may react."

Update, 2:31 p.m., Monday: Ms. Stanley sent me a detailed response early Monday afternoon, and provided links to other articles of hers that, she said, are stylistically similar to this one.   She wrote:

In the review, I referenced a painful and insidious stereotype solely in order to praise Ms. Rhimes and her shows for traveling so far from it. If making that connection between the two offended people, I feel bad about that. But I think that a full reading allows for a different takeaway than the loudest critics took.

The same applies to your question about "less than classically beautiful." Viola Davis said it about herself in the NYT magazine, more bluntly.  I commended Ms. Rhimes for casting an actress who doesn't conform to television's narrow standards of beauty; I have said the same thing about Helen Mirren in "Prime Suspect."

I didn't think Times readers would take the opening sentence literally because I so often write arch, provocative ledes that are then undercut or mitigated by the paragraphs that follow. (links below)

Regrettably, this stereotype is still too incendiary to raise even in arguing that Ms. Rhimes had killed it once and for all.

Here are some random examples.

It's high time that the Department of Homeland Security investigated "Hannity's America."

No woman really loves Bob Dylan.

There is nothing not funny about eating disorders.

 

My final take of the day: I still plan to talk to Mr. Baquet about the article, its editing, and about diversity in the newsroom, particularly among culture critics.  The Times has significant diversity among its high-ranking editors and prominent writers, but it's troubling that with 20 critics, not one is black and only two are persons of color.

Correction: September 22, 2014
Due to a production error, the byline on this post was briefly incorrect.
Correction: September 22, 2014
An earlier version of this post said that there is only one person of color on The Times's staff of critics. There are two.

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A History of the United Nations in Pictures

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ArtsBeat: ‘Boardwalk Empire’ Recap: ‘Jesus Was Wrong’

Written By Unknown on Senin, 22 September 2014 | 13.07

Photo Michael Kenneth Williams as Chalky White in "Boardwalk Empire."Credit Macall B. Polay/HBO

Season 5, Episode 3: 'What Jesus Said'

A hand breaks through a pane of glass on a door and turns the key on the other side. Chalky (Michael Kenneth Williams) and his new partner in crime, Buck, enter a neat, turn-of-the-century home. First things first, they raid the icebox. After their chain-gang escape and long journey, they're hungry. Buck drinks from an old-fashioned milk bottle as Chalky cracks an egg into a glass and swallows it down. But they're hungry for more than food.

"You said a safe?" Chalky asks. "So where it at?"

"Somewhere," Buck says.

As they search the joint in the early morning light, a teenage girl in a white nightgown appears. They ask her for money, but she says, "We don't have any cash." She claims to be alone. Buck pulls out a gun and accuses her of lying.

She is; soon the girl's mother, Marie, drifts downstairs as well.

Cut to Nucky's 1880s flashback, a familiar setting in this final season of HBO's "Boardwalk Empire." Young Nucky seems to have been promoted from porch sweeper to all-around lobby boy at the Commodore's Corner Hotel. Responding to the command "Boy!" over and over, Young Nucky (Nolan Lyons) scuttles around, setting up chairs on the beach, holding an umbrella over a woman in the rain, noticing a pretty young thing around his age on vacation and carrying flowers up to a man's room. The man chats with him about love and asks him to bring fresh flowers every day. As if receiving an extra-special tip, Nucky gets a peek past the door at the man's beautiful, naked companion inside.

Returning to 1931 Atlantic City, Nucky talks on the phone to Sally (Patricia Arquette) in Havana; she seems to be running a very nice-looking bar or maybe even a whole hotel. They discuss Senator Lloyd's not showing up at the Mayflower Grain Corporation meeting, but Nucky tells her of a possible new partner for his enterprise, a Wall Streeter named Joe Kennedy, the "big fish coming down from Boston looking to get into the liquor business." "Happy Days Are Here Again" comes on the radio, and Nucky and Sally listen to it together on opposite ends of the phone. "How's that for an omen?" Nucky says.

He opens his mail as they listen. One letter has a return address: Miss Nellie Bly, The Pirate Sea, En route to Cathay. Nucky looks concerned. Is it from the real Nellie Bly, one of the first female muckraking journalists? (Seems unlikely, since she died in 1922.) Could it be the letter that Gillian (Gretchen Mol) was writing from the psychiatric ward? Is it his young, lost love from the flashback? Are she and Gillian one and the same? Hmmm.

In New York City, Margaret (Kelly Macdonald) is being questioned by some company men about Abe Redstone, the alias that Arnold Rothstein used at her investment company. They explain that although Rothstein died in 1928, his account was kept "very much alive" and that there had been 18 cash withdrawals over the years, amounting to $111,000. Margaret's boss, Mr. Bennett (of the self-inflicted bullet to the brain), had been siphoning funds and using them to play the market. But Margaret was the signer of many of the checks. She explains that she often signed off on much of Mr. Bennett's business. The widowed Mrs. Rothstein is about to sue the firm, and they're looking for someone to take the fall.

Back to the home invasion, which borrows heavily from Truman Capote's "In Cold Blood." (The episode's co-authors, Cristine Chambers and Howard Korder, must be fans.) Readers of that nonfiction classic will recall that Dick and Perry break into the Clutter home because Dick heard from a cellmate who had once done work on the Clutter family farm that there was a safe there. Buck (whose name is close to Dick) says that he once delivered ice to a fancy party here years ago and that the man of the house just watched him haul the 100-pound block. All he gave Buck was a "that'll do." Buck seems to still hold a grudge.

He says he saw a safe in the basement. The women, Fern and her mother, Marie, claim not to have it any more but offer $9 from Marie's purse. "Take it and go," Marie says.

Fern tells them that her father is away on business. Buck menacingly aims a gun at them, while Chalky tries to defuse the situation by asking her what grade she's in. Tenth, she answers.

Chalky knows, from having children, that if the girl doesn't go to school today, someone might send a truant officer around. The mother agrees. "Yes, they've very vigilant," she says. Chalky is itching to leave.

"Get the green, and let's get ourselves gone in daylight," Chalky says.

But Buck is not backing down. "There's a safe in that cellar," he says. "I done seen it with my own eyes. I never forget it."

Fern and Marie claim to no longer have the safe, having moved everything to a safe deposit box in the bank. They offer to go to the bank to get the valuables. "I'll stay, and Fern can go into town," Marie says, nervously.

Chalky suggests they forget it and just tie the women up and leave. The father will find them when he returns home, and he and Buck will be long gone. But Buck refuses to give up.

In Harlem, Chalky's old nemesis, Dr. Narcisse (Jeffrey Wright), is meeting with Lucky Luciano (Vincent Piazza) and Bugsy Siegel (Michael Zegen). Maranzano wants to continue the drug business that Masseria conducted with Narcisse. But that's not all: Maranzano wants to offer Narcisse protection.

"Against what?" Narcisse asks.

Luciano explains: "People are losing things all over. Some guy, he's a millionaire, next thing you know he's selling Chiclets in the street."

"Or worse," Bugsy says.

But Narcisse is not easily rattled. "I thank you both for your concern," he says, "and I'm sorry you came up this far for nothing."

Back in Atlantic City, Kennedy (Matt Letscher) is visiting Nucky and brags that he has eight children. Nucky claims to have two and mentions that his nephew is an assistant in the United States attorney's office in Manhattan. (So Willie got the job after all.)

Over veal parmigiana and an offer of red wine, Nucky discovers that Kennedy doesn't drink. "It's hard enough doing business as an Irish Catholic," Kennedy explains. "I try my best to thwart the notion that we're all drunkards." So Nucky changes his own order to seltzer.

Buck, meanwhile, falls asleep in a rocking chair with the gun in his hand. Marie and Fern, still in their nightgowns, are tied up with rope, just like the Clutters from Capote's book. And I'm hoping, nervously, that they won't meet the same fate. Marie tries to persuade Chalky to take the gun and leave, but Chalky tells her to shut her mouth.

Fern asks Chalky about his own daughter. He says he called her Maybelle. He doesn't mention that Maybelle was accidentally shot and killed at the end of last season while in his Onyx Club. So anything is possible. Innocent young women get murdered all the time on "Boardwalk Empire." I'm on the edge of my seat, worried there will soon be "hair all over them walls" – to quote Dick.

"There's forgiveness for everyone," Fern says. "That's what Jesus said."

"Baby girl," Nucky answers, "Jesus was wrong."

There's a knock at the door, and a package is left on the doorstep. It's a dress for Fern's spring formal. Buck, now awake, unties Fern and tells her to put it on. She starts to put it on over her nightgown, but he demands, "Put it on proper." As she starts to slowly take off her nightgown, Chalky makes a move to stop what's unfolding, (just like Perry did to Dick when he proposed raping the young Nancy Clutter), but not before Marie blurts out, "The safe is upstairs!"

Margaret, back in New York, sits down to tea with Mrs. Rothstein, who serves it black. "I don't keep milk in the house any more," Carolyn Rothstein (Jennifer Ferrin) says. "It turns my stomach." (You'll recall A.R. loved his milk and cake.)

Carolyn, one tough cookie, gets right down to business and lets Margaret know that she knows all about her. Not just that she was living in a Rothstein apartment but that her husband is Nucky Thompson. "Nineteen years of marriage — do you know what I have to show for it?" Carolyn asks. "This tea set, that hideous chair, this ring and humiliation. Arnold left me buckets of that."

She wants the money that was taken from the account. When Margaret says she doesn't have that kind of money, Carolyn shoots back, "Your husband does." Carolyn's ring, she explains, came from a treasure chest at the Egyptian-themed party hosted by Margaret and Nucky years ago, a party Rothstein attended. The chest was hauled out, and all the guests got to choose from a lavish display of jewelry. Ah, the good old days. If Margaret doesn't pay up, she may have something in common with Carolyn: seeing her name in the paper next to the phrase "notorious husband."

In other flashbacks, Nucky is bringing flowers to the man in the room with the naked woman again, but no one answers. The Commodore (John Ellison Conlee) sends him off to drive a pony cart for some vacationers. Nucky is parked with the pony as a couple sleep on the beach. Their daughter, the young girl he spied earlier in the episode, comes over the dunes after taking a pee and recites some lines from the Bible having to do with Enoch – who walked with God and was taken up to heaven without dying. They discuss the passage. She then offers Nucky 10 cents to kiss the pony. So much for scholarly Biblical debate.

When her mother calls, she quickly turns away. But when she looks back, Nucky walks over to the pony and plants one on his snout. He then sees the man who asked for the flowers standing on the beach, alone. Nucky explains that he had brought the flowers again, but no one answered. "Be sure she gets them," the man says.

Chalky, meanwhile, is hammering away at the upstairs safe, to no avail. He and Buck are arguing over the fact that they can't open it. When Marie says her husband has the combination, Buck breaks the wall to pieces with the hammer. Since anything can really happen in this show, and since – spoiler alert to anyone who's never read "In Cold Blood" — the Clutters were massacred by Dick and Perry, I expect Buck to bash their heads in as well. Instead, even worse, he grabs the gun and holds it to Fern's head, at which point Marie yells out, "I'll open it!" (This woman has got to be kidding. I would have opened that safe hours ago.)

Inside are liberty bonds, the only thing the father – who was never really coming home — left them. Buck cocks the gun, but Chalky hits him in the head with the hammer. When that doesn't do the trick, and Buck attempts to choke Fern, Chalky plants the sharp end of the hammer in his neck. (Those writers, always looking for new ways to kill people!) So much for new friends.

That feisty Fern grabs the gun and points it at Chalky and asks if his own daughter knows what he is. "She knew what I was," Chalky says.

"Take the $9 and get out of our house," Marie orders.

Back in the present, Nucky is entertaining Kennedy in his burlesque club, trying to persuade him to join him in the bootlegging trade. In the upstairs office overlooking the club (a staple in many film noir movies), Kennedy is talking about his kids, how he's teaching them to sail. He calls Nucky out on the fact that there are no photos or drawings anywhere from his own children. "What's that got to do with making money?" Nucky asks.

"It's what you're making it for," Kennedy answers. A tense conversation ensues, in which Nucky admits, "I want to leave something behind." Kennedy pours him a drink and then goes off to meet with one of the burlesque dancers.

Nucky, oh so lonely, downs it and then pours himself another.

While Mickey Doyle rounds up some hobos to help load Nucky's liquor trucks, Bugsy and another friend are paying a visit to Harlem to one of Narcisse's whorehouses. (It seems Narcisse has branched out into other enterprises over the past seven years.) They execute the pimp and kill all the prostitutes.

In a flashback, Nucky returns to the man's room to deliver the flowers, but the sheriff answers the door. The naked woman lies dead behind him, her throat slashed.

Nucky tells the sheriff (Boris McGiver) that he saw the man in the room. "On the beach south of town." To which the sheriff replies, "It's taken care of."

"You caught him?"

"I did what's right."

"He said he loved her," Nucky says, obviously confused.

The sheriff tells him to keep the whole episode "just between us."

Nucky opens an envelope left for him by one of the guests. (Which echoes the earlier letter he got from "Nellie Bly.") On the postcard is a boy and a girl and a pony cart. And the other side reads: "We are here for a few weeks every summer. Mabel Jeffries. PS I would have let you kiss me." Serious "Boardwalk" aficionados know that Mabel was Nucky's first wife, who died in 1913. (Nucky Johnson, the real Atlantic City boss whom the series is based on, was married to a woman named Mabel Jeffries, who died of tuberculosis.)

Nucky is dreaming of this moment in the present after having fallen asleep on the sofa. He hears a noise and sees a woman sitting in the dark on the other side of the room. "Mabel?" he asks, still half asleep.

"I'm afraid not," Margaret says in that familiar brogue. She turns on the light.

And Nucky smiles.

Cold-blooded questions and talking points:

Will Dr. Narcisse start a war with Maranzano now that his prostitutes have been slaughtered? Or will be simply pay the protection money?

Will Nucky and Margaret get back together and live happily ever after? Or will he write her a check for $111,000?

Now that Chalky has $9, where will he go? Will he try to visit his old buddy, Narcisse?

Is that letter to Nucky from Gillian, Mabel, the ghost of Nellie Bly or some other secret admirer?

Will Kennedy and Nucky go into business together? Maybe Kennedy, Rose, Nucky and Margaret will go on a double date now that Margaret's back. But will they drink Coca-Cola or moonshine? Will they get the families together? Maybe a young J.F.K. will make a cameo.

Helene Stapinski is the author of "Five-Finger Discount: A Crooked Family History," a chronicle of New Jersey crime and corruption.


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DealBook: Siemens Agrees to Buy Dresser-Rand, an Oil Services Company, for $7.6 Billion

Siemens, the German engineering conglomerate, announced late Sunday a deal for the Dresser-Rand Group, an oil products and services company.

The deal, worth about $7.6 billion, including the assumption of debt, gives Siemens prominence in the American energy sector, which is booming as new reserves of oil and natural gas are tapped through unconventional drilling techniques.

Dresser-Rand has been fielding inquiries from potential buyers in recent months and hired advisers to vet the bids. But Siemens beat out other suitors with an all-cash bid of $83 a share.

"Dresser-Rand is a perfect fit for the Siemens portfolio," said Joe Kaeser, chief executive of Siemens.

He added, "With this, Dresser-Rand will become the oil and gas company within Siemens."

Other companies that had been pursuing a deal included Sulzer, the Swiss pump maker, which acknowledged it was in talks with Dresser-Rand last week. General Electric was reported to be considering a bid for Dresser-Rand as well, but people briefed on G.E.'s plans said the company was never in serious discussions about making an offer.

Winning the bidding war for Dresser-Rand would be a win for Mr. Kaeser. This summer, Siemens lost out to G.E. for the energy assets being sold by Alstom, the French industrial group. Siemens already makes some products and equipment for the United States energy sector, including a range of gas turbines.

But in acquiring Dresser-Rand, based in Houston, Siemens is expanding its exposure to the industry as technology for the extraction method called hydraulic fracturing, or fracking, opens huge swaths of land to drilling.

Siemens, with a market value of nearly $85 billion, is a vastly larger company than Dresser-Rand, whose products it will sell through its sales operation.

In a separate deal also announced Sunday, Siemens will sell its 50 percent stake in a household appliances joint venture with Robert Bosch GmbH for 3 billion euros ($3.85 billion).

A version of this article appears in print on 09/22/2014, on page B2 of the NewYork edition with the headline: Siemens Agrees to Buy Dresser-Rand.


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DealBook: A Soaring Debut for Alibaba

Written By Unknown on Sabtu, 20 September 2014 | 13.07

Photo Maggie Wu, Alibaba's chief financial officer, rang the bell at the New York Stock Exchange on Friday.Credit Todd Heisler/The New York Times

The long-awaited public market debut of the Alibaba Group, the Chinese Internet titan, did not disappoint on Friday, eclipsing every other company that has started to sell stock so far this year.

After pricing at $68 a share on Thursday night, Alibaba's shares opened sharply higher on Friday and finished the day up 38 percent, at $93.89. Yet even Alibaba's blockbuster stock sale appears unlikely to dampen a yearlong enthusiasm for initial public offerings as start-ups and private companies continue to flock to the stock markets.

Ever since it filed to go public in May, Alibaba has dominated headlines about its public offering. But it was entering a market that has already been filled with new stock issues. There have been 195 public offerings priced so far this year in the United States, according to data from Renaissance Capital, an increase of 34 percent compared with the numbers in the period a year earlier.

"The I.P.O. market right now is robust and healthy," said David Ethridge, the head of capital markets for the New York Stock Exchange. "We're seeing participation from every sector of the economy."

Alibaba, which raised $21.8 billion in its stock sale, instantly became one of the biggest publicly traded technology companies in the world. (The amount of money raised in the public offering will rise if underwriters make use of an overallotment option to meet strong investor demand, an event that is widely expected.)

To truly appreciate how enormous Alibaba is, consider that its market value is nearly as big as the market value of the entire American initial public offering market so far this year. At its offering price, Alibaba's market value was about $168 billion. The combined market value of the other United States companies that have gone public this year is $180.5 billion, according to Standard & Poor's Capital IQ, a research firm.

Photo Jack Ma, Alibaba's founder, celebrated his company's initial public offering at the New York Stock Exchange on Friday.Credit Todd Heisler/The New York Times

None of the companies that have gone public this year could command the attention that Alibaba has enjoyed.

Ringing the bell were eight customers of Alibaba as the company's senior managers watched from a special cordoned-off section of the floor. Jack Ma, the company's executive chairman and co-founder, watched with amusement before strolling along the floor of the Big Board.

Other senior executives, including Alibaba's head of corporate development, whipped out their smartphones for selfies and snapshots.

As bankers at one underwriter, Goldman Sachs, and market makers at Barclays sorted through a flood of orders, a din filled the cavernous exchange — only to be quieted on occasion when a specialist bellowed yet another rise in the potential opening price of Alibaba shares.

Finally, several minutes before noon, one market maker called out that Alibaba's "book was frozen" at $92.70. Within a minute, Alibaba's shares finally began trading on the Big Board under the ticker symbol BABA. Trading was heavy, with more than 270 million shares changing hands during the session.

Few companies sought to compete with that kind of spectacle; just four small health care companies priced I.P.O.s. The pace is expected to pick up next week, with 13 companies set to go public.

Among them is the Citizens Financial Group, the retail bank that is being spun off from the Royal Bank of Scotland. The company, which is seeking to raise as much as $3.5 billion from its stock sale, initially planned to list this week but chose to wait and make room for Alibaba.

Wayfair, a technology company based in Boston, had also considered going public this week but pushed the timing back to stay out of Alibaba's shadow.

Investment bankers said that companies with significantly less impressive financial performance would most likely take their time going public. The GoDaddy Group, the Web registrar busy trying to become more of an all-around service provider for small businesses, is now leaning toward going public early next year rather than late this year, according to people briefed on its plans.

Over the longer term, however, analysts and executives in the capital markets business said that Alibaba's stock sale was unlikely to squash investors' appetites for other newly minted public companies. Big mutual fund operators like Fidelity and Vanguard have a plethora of funds, some of which focus on giant companies, others that specialize in health care companies and still others devoted to technology businesses.

The few biotechnology companies that priced this week, for example, drew primarily from smaller funds and not the big-money managers that flocked to Alibaba.

"They wouldn't be on the same radar," Matt Kennedy, an analyst at Renaissance Capital, said of the biotechnology investors. "It's a different investor."

It's impossible for one stock sale — even one as big as Alibaba's — to completely sap demand for initial public offerings, said Mr. Ethridge of the New York Stock Exchange.

"Historically there's no pause after a big I.P.O.," said Jackie Kelley, the global I.P.O. markets leader for Ernst & Young. "That's assuming the transaction goes well."

Photo The Chinese flag adorned the New York Stock Exchange on Friday.Credit Todd Heisler/The New York Times

Alibaba, together with underwriters, market makers and the New York Stock Exchange, took pains to avoid the pitfalls that befell Facebook, whose market debut was marred by trading flaws and an overaggressive fund-raising strategy that left it vulnerable to a botched first day of trading.

As long as initial offerings continue to perform and make money for investors, they will continue to find buyers. An exchange-traded fund that tracks initial public offerings and is run by Renaissance Capital is up 6.9 percent for the year, compared with a 4.2 percent rise in the Dow Jones industrial average. (The I.P.O. fund falls behind the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index, however, which is up nearly 9 percent for the year.)

Should Alibaba's stock perform strongly in the coming days, its success could help persuade even more companies to go to market. Mr. Ethridge of the New York Stock Exchange speculated that other foreign companies, particularly those in China, could then seek to emulate Alibaba.

"We're going to end the year on an incredibly strong note," said Nelson Griggs, head of new listings at Nasdaq. "The pipeline is exceptionally strong."

A version of this article appears in print on 09/20/2014, on page B1 of the NewYork edition with the headline: A Soaring Debut for Alibaba .


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DealBook: Alibaba, With Its I.P.O., Mints Millionaires and Risk-Takers

Written By Unknown on Jumat, 19 September 2014 | 13.07

Credit Mike Clarke/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images

HANGZHOU, China —  This leafy manufacturing hub two hours southwest of Shanghai is best known for its scenic lake, Buddhist pagodas and tangy fish-head soup.

With the Chinese e-commerce giant the Alibaba Group poised to start trading on Friday, Hangzhou will earn another accolade: the city that minted thousands of Internet millionaires.

Started here in 1999, Alibaba has followed the model of Microsoft, Google and other American technology companies, generously handing out stock to all levels of workers, from senior executives to receptionists. It has created a wealth diaspora rarely seen in China, where the economy is still dominated by state-owned enterprises, and private companies generally reserve riches for executives at the upper echelons.

The initial public offering on Thursday, which valued Alibaba at $168 billion, will provide Silicon Valley-style payouts. At Alibaba and its affiliates, around 6,000 current and former employees owned stock worth nearly $8 billion before the I.P.O. And that sum represents only a piece of the shares doled out over the years to employees, some of whom cashed out earlier at lower, albeit still lucrative, prices.

Major Shareholders Share value
Co-founder and vice chairman

"Can you imagine the sort of wealth that's being generated through this?" said Sanjay Varma, a former Alibaba vice president who still owns shares in the company. "It's incredible."

The rise of Alibaba and its founder, Jack Ma, has proved instructive for a generation of young Chinese — not just as a road map to riches, but as a lesson in entrepreneurial individualism. Today, thousands of young people across China are creating start-ups of their own, driven by visions of what they might do if they, too, strike it big.

The Alibaba money has helped spur a constellation of Internet companies in China. Over the last decade, one-time Alibaba employees have helped start 130 Internet businesses, more than any other Chinese company, according to Itjuzi.com, a website that tracks investment in domestic technology companies. There's Mushroom Street, a social shopping site that caters to young women; Didi Dache, a taxi-hailing app that has 100 million users in China; and Tongcheng, a travel website founded by a former Alibaba salesman that has more than 2,000 employees.

Photo Lai Jie, a former Alibaba employee who started a wireless Internet service in public spaces like airports, currently has 80 employees.Credit Qilai Shen for The New York Times

Three years ago, Lai Jie, a former Alibaba product manager, sold a big chunk of his shares and started WiTown with three co-workers. Today, the venture, which runs wireless Internet service in public spaces like airports, has nearly 80 employees, most in Hangzhou.

"The city is chock-full of talent," said Mr. Lai, 33.

Alibaba has been educating employees about the hidden risks of sudden wealth. In an email in July, Mr. Ma wrote about the looming I.P.O. and warned that Alibaba's fast growth could push up prices in its hometown, likening the effect to Microsoft on Seattle or Facebook on Silicon Valley. "All our hard work hasn't been just so we could turn into a bunch of tuhao," he wrote, using a slang reference to China's swarms of uncouth newly rich.

From the early days, top executives like Joseph Tsai, the current vice chairman, would hold companywide sessions about the basics of spending and saving, as well as stock options. "We talked about freedom of choice in 2002 and 2003," said Savio Kwan, Alibaba's chief operating officer at the time, who still owns shares. "People said, 'What is that?' I said, 'It's when you become rich and you don't need to work for a living anymore. You can choose to still come to work at Alibaba or choose to retire or to do something else.' "

"It was hard to explain the concept to people who were earning only a couple thousand renminbi a month," he added, referring to an amount that was roughly $250 at the time. "But the company was growing like crazy."

The mind-set, in part, requires a cultural shift among a work force that has, even by Chinese standards, gotten by on modest salaries.

Photo Traditionally dependent on manufacturing, Hangzhou, a city of six million people in China, has been embracing the high-tech sector.Credit Qilai Shen for The New York Times

Like a number of employees awash in stock options, Su Jie, 33, left the company in recent weeks. He wants to set up a product management consultancy, partly funded by his Alibaba stock.

But he said the decision to depart from what many Chinese consider a prized, stable job was not easy, especially in the face of pressure from his parents, who would have preferred he join the "iron rice bowl" security of China's civil service. "One thing you can say about Alibaba is that the company gives its workers a sense of purpose and a belief that anything is possible," said Mr. Su, who joined the company eight years ago right out of college.

Traditionally dependent on manufacturing, Hangzhou, a city of six million people, has been embracing the high-tech sector. Local Communist Party officials have been aggressively promoting the city as a magnet for start-ups through special economic zones, high-tech incubator centers and low-cost capital to young entrepreneurs. Mr. Lai, the former Alibaba product manager, pulled together $81,000 for his company, supplementing his own funds with money from an angel investor and a no-interest loan from the local government.

"People here really value bold thinking and risk-taking, and the government is also pretty good, which is a rarity in China," said Mr. Lai. In recent years, Hangzhou's department of science and technology has distributed $130 million to 152 start-ups, according to its website.

The combination — Alibaba's success and the government's support — has helped turn Hangzhou into an entrepreneurial hub. Last year, the e-commerce industry contributed 39 billion renminbi ($6.3 billion) to the local economy, a 56 percent increase over 2012, according to government figures. In the city's technology-heavy central business district, e-commerce was responsible for 25 percent of all economic activity last year, up from 7 percent in 2011, according to the Hangzhou Daily newspaper.

Zhejiang University, one of the nation's top-rated schools, has become something of a feeder farm for local high-tech firms that aggressively recruit graduating seniors. Incubators, which bring together a number of start-ups under the same roof, are also popping up around the city.

Started in 2012, the Fudi Startup Incubator Centers are the brainchild of Li Zhiguo, an early employee at Alibaba who went on to found Koubei.com, a business review site later sold to Alibaba. The newest Fudi center, which opened a few months ago, is a collection of brightly colored buildings that are home to dozens of start-ups, including a venture focused on Internet coupons, a dating app for college students and a wedding planning site for young couples.

Photo Zhang Jie and Fang Yi are angel investors and entrepreneurs in Hangzhou who oversee eight start-ups.Credit Qilai Shen for The New York Times

Among the biggest tenants are Zhang Jie and Fang Yi, angel investors and entrepreneurs who oversee eight start-ups. During a recent visit, the vibe was unmistakably Silicon Valley, as dozens of young programmers hunched over computers and others napped on an air mattress or inside a pup tent. A blowup kiddie pool and punching bag dominated the room, which was flecked with exhortations to "Hit the Ground Running" and "Find the Must-Win Battle."

Photo Fang Yi and his wife are prominent Hangzhou technology incubator mavens.Credit Qilai Shen for The New York Times

"The first year or two of a start-up is very challenging, so you have to keep an eye on these guys, otherwise it's easy to go under," said Ms. Zhang, 30, a fast-talking woman who is part den mother and part drill sergeant. "Also, you have to keep your employees happy because other companies will steal them."

The couple, graduates of Zhejiang University who have started a number of Internet companies since 2005, has done well for themselves. In June, they became among the first residents in Hangzhou to own a Tesla.

Although luxury car dealers and property developers are hoping the Alibaba I.P.O. will prompt a spending bonanza, several employees with significant stock holdings said they would probably defer big purchases and instead use their money to finance start-ups. Mr. Su, the former Alibaba product manager, said he had no plans to trade his two-year-old Ford Mondeo for a more expensive car.

Travel is a different matter, he said. Like other Alibaba alumni, he said he had taken few vacations in the last eight years, in keeping with the company's work-till-you-drop ethos. Several weeks ago, however, Mr. Su and several friends set off on a two-month trek across Tibet.

"Before this, the only time I took off from work was for my honeymoon," he said shortly before leaving town. "For a lot of Alibaba employees, we are finally getting a chance to enjoy life."

Related Coverage:


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News: Scotland’s Independence Referendum: Live Updates on the Vote

Video of pro-independence activists rallying in Glasgow on Thursday night as polls closed, from Britain's Channel 4 News.

After voters streamed to the polls in great numbers to vote on an independence referendum in Scotland Thursday, The Times is tracking the counting of the ballots, which is expected to stretch into the early hours of Friday morning. (Estimates vary, but the final tally is expected to be announced after 6 a.m. local time, or 1 a.m. Eastern time.)

1:21 A.M. Salmond Concedes
Photo

A screenshot of Alex Salmond's concession speech.Credit BBC

Alex Salmond, the first minister of Scotland's regional government, has just conceded defeat in a speech to supporters in Edinburgh in which he also said that he would press the British government to honor its late promises to grant more powers to the Scottish authorities.

First Minister Alex Salmond's speech #indyref #ScotDecides http://t.co/tRHuFA6B6d http://t.co/rQ1cnCpwqD

— STV News (@STVNews) 19 Sep 14

Salmond calls on followers to accept "our decision as a nation." Hails turnout of 86 per cent. "A triumph for the democratic process."

— Mark MacKinnon (@markmackinnon) 19 Sep 14

Chants of 'we love Scotland' – & boos for Alex Salmond's speech – at the Better Together party in Glasgow #indyref http://t.co/z2jMHEqd9L

— Channel 4 News (@Channel4News) 19 Sep 14

Alex Salmond: "Scotland promised second reading of the Scotland Bill…All Scots will demand that that timetable is followed." #indyref

— Patrick McPartlin (@p_mcpartlin) 19 Sep 14

Classic presumptuous Salmond: "All Scots will demand…" This guy lost but presumes to speak for No voters.

— Iain Martin (@iainmartin1) 19 Sep 14

Commiserations to Yes supporters, whose idealism & optimism are still needed by Scotland – & the whole of Britain #indyref

— Tom Holland (@holland_tom) 19 Sep 14

With that, we sign off for the night and thank you for following the results with us here. Please visit the home page of nytimes.com for more coverage of the aftermath of the vote from our colleagues in Britain.

Robert Mackey

1:13 A.M. Fife Says 'No,' Deciding Contest

Fife has voted to remain part of the United Kingdom, confirming the overall result, which is a defeat for the independence movement in the referendum.

FIFE: Yes: 114,148 (44.95%) NO: 139,788 (55.05%) #ScotDecides #indyref http://t.co/zDEGeJDvp1

— STV News (@STVNews) 19 Sep 14

It's official. Scotland has voted NO to independence #indyref #ScotDecides http://t.co/cs6T2TJnCN http://t.co/zfGafEdGbh

— STV News (@STVNews) 19 Sep 14

The writer Ewan Morrison, who explained his defection from the "yes" camp in a widely read blog post this week, saluted the result.

Scotland has voted No. And the true face of Scotland has revealed itself. #indyref

— ewan morrison (@MrEwanMorrison) 19 Sep 14

Alistair Darling, the leader of the Better Together campaign, hailed the result on Twitter a short time ago.

An extraordinary night. Humbled by the level of support and the efforts of our volunteers. Will give speech in Glasgow shortly. #indyref

— Alistair Darling (@TogetherDarling) 19 Sep 14

Robert Mackey

1:07 A.M. Argyll and Bute in the 'No' Column Too

Argyll and Bute also voted against independence by a clear margin of nearly 60-40.

DECLARATION – Argyll & Bute votes No. No wins 58.5% to 41.5%. #indyref #ScotDecides http://t.co/tRHuFA6B6d http://t.co/uCXqEk3QA7

— STV News (@STVNews) 19 Sep 14

Robert Mackey

1:05 A.M. Aberdeenshire Vote 'No'

Aberdeenshire also goes against independence by a large margin, just over 60 percent.

ABERDEENSHIRE: Yes 71,337 (39.6%), No: 108606 (60.4%) #ScotDecides #indyref http://t.co/zDEGeJDvp1

— STV News (@STVNews) 19 Sep 14

Robert Mackey

12:58 A.M. Edinburgh Votes Overwhelmingly 'No'

Edinburgh, Scotland's capital city, voted overwhelmingly against independence by 194,638 votes to 123,927, a margin of 61-39.

#Edinburgh… Yes 123,927 / No 194,638. Turnout 84.4%. #indyref

— Patrick McPartlin (@p_mcpartlin) 19 Sep 14

12:53 A.M. J.K. Rowling, 'Better Together' Donor, Cheers Result

The vote against independence was cheered on Twitter by J.K. Rowling, the author of the Harry Potter books who donated £1 million to the anti-independence Better Together campaign in June.

#indyref Been up all night watching Scotland make history. A huge turnout, a peaceful democratic process: we should be proud.

— J.K. Rowling (@jk_rowling) 19 Sep 14

Ms. Rowling, who has lived in Scotland for 21 years, explained her thinking in a post on her website in which she wrote:

My hesitance at embracing independence has nothing to do with lack of belief in Scotland's remarkable people or its achievements. The simple truth is that Scotland is subject to the same twenty-first century pressures as the rest of the world. It must compete in the same global markets, defend itself from the same threats and navigate what still feels like a fragile economic recovery. The more I listen to the Yes campaign, the more I worry about its minimisation and even denial of risks. Whenever the big issues are raised – our heavy reliance on oil revenue if we become independent, what currency we'll use, whether we'll get back into the EU – reasonable questions are drowned out by accusations of 'scaremongering.' …

If we leave, though, there will be no going back. This separation will not be quick and clean: it will take microsurgery to disentangle three centuries of close interdependence, after which we will have to deal with three bitter neighbours. I doubt that an independent Scotland will be able to bank on its ex-partners' fond memories of the old relationship once we've left. The rest of the UK will have had no say in the biggest change to the Union in centuries, but will suffer the economic consequences. When Alex Salmond tells us that we can keep whatever we're particularly attached to – be it EU membership, the pound or the Queen, or insists that his preferred arrangements for monetary union or defence will be rubber-stamped by our ex-partners – he is talking about issues that Scotland will need, in every case, to negotiate. In the words of 'Scotland's Choices' 'Scotland will be very much the smaller partner seeking arrangements from the UK to meet its own needs, and may not be in a very powerful negotiating position.'

Prime Minister David Cameron also posted a message on Twitter saying that he had congratulated Ms. Rowling's neighbor Alistair Darling, the leader of the Better Together campaign.

I've spoken to Alistair Darling – and congratulated him on an well-fought campaign. #indyref

— David Cameron (@David_Cameron) 19 Sep 14

Robert Mackey

12:20 A.M. BBC Forecasts Defeat for Independence

The BBC has just forecast a defeat for the independence movement, predicting a 55 percent vote against the measure in the referendum when all the votes are counted.

Scotland's #indyref will reject independence, BBC predicts http://t.co/ZNrWIPczRk http://t.co/lE9zry4g4f

— BBC Breaking News (@BBCBreaking) 19 Sep 14

The Guardian predicted the same result, with the same likely percentage.

Robert Mackey

12:13 A.M. The Ayrshires Won't Have It

South Ayrshire and East Ayrshire are the latest councils to reject independence. The national tally still stands at 54 percent to 46 percent.

SOUTH AYRSHIRE: Yes 34,402 (42.1%), No: 47, 247 (57.9 %) #ScotDecides #indyref http://t.co/zDEGeJDvp1

— STV News (@STVNews) 19 Sep 14

EAST AYRSHIRE: Yes 39,672 (47.2%), No: 44,442 (52.8%) #ScotDecides #indyref http://t.co/zDEGeJDvp1

— STV News (@STVNews) 19 Sep 14

Robert Mackey

12:06 A.M. West Lothian and North Ayrshire Say 'No'

Two more results, from West Lothian and North Ayrshire, solidify the "no" vote, which now leads by 54 percent to 46. While there are still many votes to be counted, that is precisely the margin that the British pollster YouGov predicted based on a survey released seven hours ago, as the polls closed.

DECLARATION- West Lothian votes no. No wins 55.2% to 44.8%.#ScotDecides http://t.co/zDEGeJDvp1 http://t.co/3rybr8eiLa

— STV News (@STVNews) 19 Sep 14

North Ayrshire #indyref result: Yes votes 47,072 , No votes 49,016 – http://t.co/5rDfus5TGy

— Scotsman (@TheScotsman) 19 Sep 14

Robert Mackey

11:58 P.M. Glasgow Votes 'Yes,' the Scottish Borders 'No'

The results in Glasgow, Scotland's biggest city, are the largest victory for the pro-independence campaign, with 194,779 votes to 169,347. That 53-47 margin still looks unlikely to be enough to swing the overall result.

Glasgow declaration: Yes 194,779, No 169,347 #indyref

— Martyn McLaughlin (@MartynMcL) 19 Sep 14

Glasgow, the third largest city in the UK, votes against being in the UK #indyref

— Naomi O'Leary (@NaomiOhReally) 19 Sep 14

After another "no" victory in the Scottish Borders, the overall tally is 54-46 against independence.

Scottish Borders #indyref result: No votes 55,553. Yes votes 27,906 – http://t.co/5rDfus5TGy

— Scotsman (@TheScotsman) 19 Sep 14

Robert Mackey

11:53 P.M. Perth and Kinross Votes 'No'

Perth and Kinross, which the Scottish National Party sees as its heartland, goes decisively against independence, by more than 60-40.

Perth and Kinross #indyref result: Yes 41,475 (39.8%), No 62,714 (60.2%) – http://t.co/5rDfus5TGy

— Scotsman (@TheScotsman) 19 Sep 14

Twenty-four hours ago, Paul Mason of Britain's Channel 4 News reported that activists from the pro-independence camp said they would throw in the towel if they took less than 50 percent in Perth and Kinross.

Most Yes ppl around me saying Perth/Kinross critical – most will go to bed/ get trashed if they get less than 50% there

— Paul Mason (@paulmasonnews) 18 Sep 14

Robert Mackey

11:49 P.M. North Lanarkshire Says 'Yes,' South Lanarkshire 'No'

The result in North Lanarkshire is 115,783 votes in favor of independence and 110,922 against.

NORTH LANARKSHIRE Yes: 115,783 (51.1%) No 110,922 (48.9) #ScotDecides #indyref http://t.co/zDEGeJDvp1

— STV News (@STVNews) 19 Sep 14

South Lanarkshire, however, goes the other way, handing the "no" camp another win.

South Lanarkshire #indyref result: No vote 121,800; Yes vote 100,990 – http://t.co/5rDfus5TGy

— Scotsman (@TheScotsman) 19 Sep 14

Robert Mackey

11:41 P.M. Four More No Votes

Four more clear wins for the "no" camp — from Angus, Dumfries and Galloway, East Dunbartonshire and East Renfrewshire — bring the overall tally to 56-44 against independence at the moment.

ANGUS: Yes: 35, 044 (43.7 %), No: 45,192 (56.3 %) #ScotDecides #indyref http://t.co/zDEGeJDvp1

— STV News (@STVNews) 19 Sep 14

DUMFRIES AND GALLOWAY: Yes 36614 (34.3%), No: 70039 (65.7%) #scotdecides #indyref http://t.co/08mBkHubpE

— STV News (@STVNews) 19 Sep 14

EAST RENFREWSHIRE Yes 24,287 (36.8%), No: 41,690 (63.2%) #ScotDecides #indyref http://t.co/zDEGeJDvp1

— STV News (@STVNews) 19 Sep 14

EAST DUNBARTONSHIRE: Yes 30,624 (38.8%), No: 48,314 (61.2%) #ScotDecides #indyref http://t.co/zDEGeJDvp1

— STV News (@STVNews) 19 Sep 14

Robert Mackey

11:33 P.M. Big Vote Against Independence in Aberdeen

Perhaps now we know why Alex Salmond, the leader of the Scottish National Party, was seen flying out of Aberdeen earlier. The city of Aberdeen hands the "no" camp another big victory, by nearly 59 percent to 41.

Aberdeen #indyref result: No vote 84,220, Yes vote 59,390 – http://t.co/5rDfus5TGy

— Scotsman (@TheScotsman) 19 Sep 14

The result delighted activists who campaigned against independence.

Oh Aberdeen you honey

— Chris Deerin (@chrisdeerin) 19 Sep 14

Robert Mackey

11:24 P.M. Falkirk Votes 'No' Too

Falkirk declares for the "no" camp, by 58,030 votes to 50,489.

FALKIRK: Yes: 50,489 (46.5%), No: 58,030 (53.5 %) #ScotDecides #indyref http://t.co/zDEGeJDvp1

— STV News (@STVNews) 19 Sep 14

Robert Mackey

11:21 P.M. Stirling Says 'No'

Stirling, which had more than 90 percent turnout, votes decisively against independence.

STIRLING: Yes 25,010 ( 40.2%), No: 37,153 (59.8%) #ScotDecides #indyref http://t.co/zDEGeJDvp1

— STV News (@STVNews) 19 Sep 14

Fraser Nelson, the editor of the Spectator, notes that this result comes in an area of historic significance.

Stirling, Braveheart territory, breaks 60/40 for 'no'. Alba Ghu Bràth!

— Fraser Nelson (@FraserNelson) 19 Sep 14

Robert Mackey

11:19 P.M. East Lothian Question Answered Emphatically 'No'

East Lothian goes into the "no" column in a decisive victory, 62 percent to 38 percent.

East Lothian is something of a bellwether. NO votes cast: 44283 Yes votes: 27467

— Matthew Moore (@mattmoorek) 19 Sep 14

Robert Mackey

11:14 P.M. Midlothian Votes 'No'

The results in Midlothian, the ninth council to report, go in favor of the anti-independence camp: 33,972 to 26,370. That 56 percent result for the "no" camp puts the overall count at 51-49 against independence.

Midlothian #indyref result: Yes 26,370; No 33,972 – http://t.co/5rDfus5TGy

— Scotsman (@TheScotsman) 19 Sep 14

Robert Mackey

11:10 P.M. West Dunbartonshire Says 'Yes We Can'

Another victory for the independence camp in West Dunbartonshire, 54-46, is greeted with chants of "Yes We Can" by pro-independence activists in the hall.

West Dunbartonshire #indyref result: Yes votes 33,720; No votes 28,776. http://t.co/5rDfus5TGy

— Scotsman (@TheScotsman) 19 Sep 14

That makes the overall count now narrowly in favor of "no," by just 50.2 percent to 49.8 percent.

Jubilant YES campaigners singing Caledonia in West Dunbartonshire tonight #ScotDecides http://t.co/kw3anZIUE6

— DAVE DONALDSON (@doubledee1973) 19 Sep 14

Robert Mackey

10:55 P.M. Dundee Votes 'Yes'

After repeated interruptions by fire alarms, the counting is over in Dundee, where the turnout was 78.8 percent, and the "yes" camp has its first big win, with about 57 percent.

Dundee says…
Much needed win for the Yes campaign
Yes: 53,628
No: 39,880 http://t.co/B8P57dsfRq

— The Daily Record (@Daily_Record) 19 Sep 14

Chants of 'Yes! Yes! Yes! Yes!' ringing out in Glasgow's Emirates Arena after the Dundee win #indyref

— Martyn McLaughlin (@MartynMcL) 19 Sep 14

Robert Mackey

10:52 P.M. Salmond Spotted at Aberdeen Airport

Glasgow's Daily Record reports that Alex Salmond, the leader of the Scottish National Party, has been spotted at the airport in Aberdeen.

Alex Salmond has been conspicuous by his absence tonight, but has now been spotted at Aberdeen Airport. #indyreflive http://t.co/Bz5q5eNiIB

— The Daily Record (@Daily_Record) 19 Sep 14

According to BBC Scotland's environment and transport correspondent David Miller, Alex Salmond, the regional First Minister, arrived a short time later in Edinburgh.

I'm told the First Minister's plane landed at Edinburgh Airport 20 minutes ago. Royal Highland Centre next to runway. #indyref

— David Miller (@BBCDavidMiller) 19 Sep 14

Robert Mackey

10:38 P.M. Inverclyde in Western Scotland Goes Narrowly for 'No'

The result in Inverclyde is the closest yet, with "no" winning by a mere 86-vote margin.

Inverclyde #indyref result: No vote 27,329 (50.08%); Yes 27,243 (49.92%) – http://t.co/5rDfus5TGy

— Scotsman (@TheScotsman) 19 Sep 14

The spoiled ballots in Inverclyde included 11 that were marked both "yes" and "no."

Inverclyde's declaration, from Sky News.

Robert Mackey

10:35 P.M. Live Video of British Television Coverage

Sky News is streaming its live coverage of the referendum ballot count on YouTube:

Live video from Britain's Sky News.

Readers can also watch the BBC's coverage on its website — and choose either BBC One or BBC Scotland, depending on the accents your prefer — and on C-Span in the United States. Scotland's STV is also making a live stream of its broadcast available on its website.

Robert Mackey

10:22 P.M. Boost for British Pound on Early Results

Our colleague Neil Gough reports from Hong Kong:

The pound rose and Asian stock markets rose on Friday as the earliest results from the Scottish independence vote showed voters in several local government areas favored keeping their country in the United Kingdom.

The pound gained more than 0.7 percent against the dollar in Asian trading early Friday, while the Nikkei share index in Japan was up by 1.4 percent at 10:50 am in Tokyo.

While only around 65,000 of the 2.2 million votes cast in Scotland had been tallied as of 2:47 am local time, the early indications were that No votes against independence had captured around 60% of the vote, while Yes votes were trailing with around 40%.

10:05 P.M. Upset in the Western Isles, as 'No' Triumphs

The results from the Western Isles, where the "yes" camp was expecting a big win, are something of an upset, albeit on a small scale. The "no" camp has it, 53 to 47.

WESTERN ISLES VOTES NO

YES – 9195 (47%)
NO – 10544 (53).

19 votes were rejected.

#indyref

— Comhairle nan Eilean (@cne_siar) 19 Sep 14

When even the regions declaring themselves in Gaelic are against independence. …

Video of the declaration in the Western Isles from Sky News.

Robert Mackey

9:45 P.M. Shetland Votes 'No'

The Shetland Islands voted "no" by about two to one, the Guardian correspondent Esther Addley reports.

Shetland result: No: 63.6% Yes 36.2% #indyref

— esther addley (@estheraddley) 19 Sep 14

That result, which was widely expected in the remote North Sea archipelago, still brought cheers from "no" campaigners in Glasgow, Channel 4 News reported.

Better Together event in Glasgow erupts into applause as they hear that Shetland voted No #indyref #c4news https://t.co/kMbYLpeRjR

— Channel 4 News (@Channel4News) 19 Sep 14

As The Wall Street Journal reported this week, the islanders do not consider themselves Scots first:

Despite being part of Scotland for over 500 years, Shetland is proud of its non-Scottish cultural heritage. The Shetland flag contains the blue of Scotland, but retains a Nordic cross. Up Helly Aa, an annual fire festival held in midwinter, is a major part of island life, for which many locals spend months preparing Viking-style costumes and performances.

Tom Holland, watching from a "no" campaign returns party, notes on Twitter the opposition of the archipelago must be bad news for Alex Salmond, the nationalist leader and former oil economist who built his vision of a prosperous independent Scotland on projections about North Sea oil revenues.

It must be v annoying 4 Salmond that oil-rich Orkney & Shetland have set themselves so decisively against secession #indyref #hoist #petard

— Tom Holland (@holland_tom) 19 Sep 14

Robert Mackey

9:37 P.M. Bracing for Disappointment in New York Bars

Although just a tiny fraction of the votes have been counted, if results continue to unfold this way, it looks as if supporters of Scotland's independence in New York could be in for a disappointing night. The Guardian has sent a reporter to canvass the mood at a Scottish bar in Midtown Manhattan, and he says support for independence at St. Andrew's Bar on West 46th Street is overwhelming.

So, to reiterate, the headline is: Alex Salmond and the Yes campaign have comprehensively carried This Bar In New York. #indyref

— Nicky Woolf (@NickyWoolf) 19 Sep 14

Three miles south, at City Winery in SoHo, another prominent supporter of Scottish independence, Billy Bragg, is now performing. In the last days of the campaign, the singer made his position clear on Twitter.

Why are people surprised that I support Scottish independence? I've been singing this song since 2001 http://t.co/hQMhzowEdI

— Billy Bragg (@billybragg) 16 Sep 14

Robert Mackey

9:03 P.M. Orkney Says 'No'

An overwhelming "no" vote from the Orkney Islands, where there has been talk of a second referendum to secede from Scotland in the event of a "yes" vote.

Orkney 83pc turnout, yes 4,883, no 10,004

— Ross Hawkins (@rosschawkins) 19 Sep 14

"Although a 'no' vote was expected there, the margin of around 67 percent to 33 percent was emphatic," my colleague Stephen Castle reports from Dundee.

"The status of Orkney and Shetland has been hotly debated since an independence referendum became inevitable three years ago," the local Press and Journal reported this week. "They only joined the Scottish crown between 1468 and 1472," the paper noted, "having been colonised – along with much of the Highlands and islands – by Scandinavians during the Viking invasions of the 8th and 9th centuries."

Robert Mackey

8:58 P.M. Relatively Low Turnout Reported in Glasgow

Amid a series of reports of startlingly high turnout elsewhere, the figures for Glasgow are lower than expected, at about 75 percent, with 364,664 ballots cast. Given that the poorer urban areas were expected to break heavily for the independence camp, that is seen by many observers as a bad omen for independence.

That turnout in Glasgow considerably lower than we'd been expecting, and will be seen as good news by No camp #indyref

— Martyn McLaughlin (@MartynMcL) 19 Sep 14

Yet it's important to emphasise – a 75% turnout in an electoral event in Glasgow remains an impressive figure #indyref

— Martyn McLaughlin (@MartynMcL) 19 Sep 14

Glasgow's poorest areas — such as Shettleston — seem to be voting heavily for YES. Something for Gordon Brown to think about.

— London Review (LRB) (@LRB) 19 Sep 14

Glasgow turnout 75% lagging way begins its affluent suburbs. The Yes-minded poor stayed home and gave #indyref to No?

— David Leask (@Leasky) 19 Sep 14

Average turnout across Scotland at 86.2% (though this graph excludes the Glasgow figure just announced) #indyref http://t.co/5gBsBw8Bfz

— Martyn McLaughlin (@MartynMcL) 19 Sep 14

90.4% turnout in East Renfrewshire – highest so far in Scotland's #indyref: http://t.co/rCp3vKqSJg

— BBC Breaking News (@BBCBreaking) 19 Sep 14

Robert Mackey

8:39 P.M. First Tally Shows 'No' Vote Ahead

The first vote tally, from Clackmannanshire, shows the anti-independence camp winning with just under 54 percent, Peter Smith of Scotland's STV reports.

Clackmannanshire declares No with 53.7%. First area to declare just as it was in 1997 devolution referendum. #ScotDecides #indyref

— Peter A Smith (@PeterAdamSmith) 19 Sep 14

Ooft. Clackmannanshire was one of the Yes campaign's bankers. Devastating. Bad omen for Yes. #indyref #indyts

— Kenny Farquharson (@KennyFarq) 19 Sep 14

The result appears to have given a boost to the value of the British pound.

The might of Clackmannanshire RT @CNBCWorld Sterling just jumped 0.3% against the dollar after Clackmannanshire votes http://t.co/p4AwSvFCgN

— Naomi O'Leary (@NaomiOhReally) 19 Sep 14

Robert Mackey

7:21 P.M. High Turnout Confirmed in Two Areas

The first turnout figures indicate an overwhelming majority of registered voters took part in the referendum in two small regions, Orkney and Clackmannanshire, Scottish television reports.

orkney turnout 83.7% (14,907) #ScotDecides #orkneycount

— Tyrone Smith (@TyroneSTV) 18 Sep 14

Turnout at Clackmannanshire is 88.6%
Total ballots 35,411
#ScotDecides #indyref

— Peter A Smith (@PeterAdamSmith) 18 Sep 14

Indications of similar turnout around the country led many supporters of both camps to praise Scots for their enthusiastic engagement.

"@InvCourier: 1st #indyref voter turnouts in. Orkney 84%, Clackmannanshire at 89%" Brilliant. Just brilliant. #exciting #ScotlandDecides

— Morven Mackenzie (@cmt_morven) 18 Sep 14

Robert Mackey

As the counting goes on and we wait for the first results, Jeremy Vine of the BBC explains that much of the vote comes from the largely urban areas of Glasgow, Edinburgh, Fife and Aberdeen, which are expected to be the last to report results.

A BBC News explanation of Scotland's councils.

The vote from some of Scotland's more remote islands could also be delayed by weather, BBC Scotland reports.

Misty weather means a fishing boat may be needed to help #indyref ballot boxes get to Stornoway from Benbucula http://t.co/eTLjieobrP

— BBC Scotland News (@BBCScotlandNews) 18 Sep 14

According to David Maddox, a political reporter for The Scotsman, there was anecdotal evidence of high turnout, thought to favor the Yes campaign, but also early indications that the postal vote in Edinburgh was going against independence.

One Craigmillar polling station in Edinburgh had a higher turnout by 930am than whole of 2010 general election #indyref #indyts

— David Maddox (@DavidPBMaddox) 18 Sep 14

89.9% of postal votes sent out in Edinburgh had been returned by Wednesday night #indyts #indyref

— David Maddox (@DavidPBMaddox) 18 Sep 14

No winning 2/1 on Edinburgh postal votes according to observers #indyts #indyref

— David Maddox (@DavidPBMaddox) 18 Sep 14

Robert Mackey

6:29 P.M. Scottish Vote Fits Backlash Against Elites

We're now in that strange period when interest in the referendum is high, but actual news is scarce, as the votes are counted. So it seems like a good time to point to my colleague Neil Irwin's excellent analysis on the broader movement that underlies the independence vote.

It is a crisis of the elites. Scotland's push for independence is driven by a conviction — one not ungrounded in reality — that the British ruling class has blundered through the last couple of decades. The same discontent applies to varying degrees in the United States and, especially, the eurozone. It is, in many ways, a defining feature of our time.

The rise of Catalan would-be secessionists in Spain, the rise of parties of the far right in European countries as diverse as Greece and Sweden, and the Tea Party in the United States are all rooted in a sense that, having been granted vast control over the levers of power, the political elite across the advanced world have made a mess of things.

The thesis is given some credence in snippets like this, from the chief executive of the British polling firm Ipsos MORI.

in most deprived neighbourhoods it's Y64:36N, in most affluent it's Y40:60N #indyref http://t.co/59j2Kbbf9d"

— Ben Page, Ipsos MORI (@benatipsosmori) 17 Sep 14

Ravi Somaiya

5:48 P.M. British Polling Firm Makes Early Prediction

The Scottish independence referendum has been tough for pollsters, as an earlier post noted, so the following should be taken with a large grain of salt.

There were no exit polls for this vote. But the British pollster YouGov re-contacted voters it had previously surveyed to ask how they voted. Based on that sample, YouGov said, it predicts that Scotland will vote against independence, 54 to 46.

"Today's responses indicate that there has been a small shift on the day from Yes to No," it said, "and also that No supporters were slightly more likely to turn out to vote."

YouGov #IndyRef prediction: YES 46%, NO 54% – http://t.co/huG6uJFiJG

— YouGov (@YouGov) 18 Sep 14

YouGov's Peter Kellner on #cnn now: "I'm 99pc sure the no's will win." #indyref #ScotlandDecides

— Hala Gorani (@HalaGorani) 18 Sep 14

We'll be waiting for the final result before drawing conclusions.

Ravi Somaiya

In Iran, where officials have a long historical memory and little love for the United Kingdom, state television is currently screening "Braveheart," according to Sobhan Hassanvand, social media editor of Iran's Shargh Daily.

Iran state TV shows Braveheart tonight –
#scottishindependence

— Sobhan Hassanvand (@Hassanvand) 18 Sep 14

He notes that a hardline newspaper has picked up the same theme.

Many in #Iran happy w/ #scottishindependence
Hardline daily VataneEmrooz: "Braveheart?" http://t.co/HzWr2Fq7Mf

— Sobhan Hassanvand (@Hassanvand) 18 Sep 14

Robert Mackey

5:22 P.M. Live Video From The Scotsman

Coming up at 5:30 p.m. New York time, The Scotsman, an Edinburgh daily that came out against independence, hosts a live discussion of the voting day via Google Hangout. Kenny Farquharson, the paper's deputy editor, will be speaking with Susan Dalgety, an activist for the anti-independence Better Together campaign and Susan Stewart of Yes Scotland.

A live discussion of the voting day from The Scotsman in Edinburgh.

Robert Mackey

5:02 P.M. Why the Referendum Is Hard to Predict

One reason it is difficult to predict what will happen when the votes are counted, Anthony Wells of the British pollsters YouGov wrote this week, is that it has been complex to create polling models for the referendum.

The Scottish referendum is a bigger challenge for pollsters than an election would be because it's a one-off. In designing methodology for voting intention the experience of what worked or didn't work at previous elections weighs heavy, and most companies' weighting schemes rely heavily upon the previous election – if not directly through weighting by recalled vote, in using the data from the previous election in designing and testing other weighting targets. For a referendum you can't take that direct approach, pollsters needed to rely more on modelling what they think is an accurate picture of the Scottish electorate and hoping it reflects the Scottish people well enough that it will also reflect their referendum voting intentions – it's complicated because Scotland has a complicated electorate.

In recent days, Mr. Wells wrote, the polls have formed a consensus around a slight lead for a vote against independence. "This isn't going to be a case of individual pollsters getting it right or wrong," he wrote, "they'll either all be around about right or all be horribly out."

Ravi Somaiya

4:43 P.M. The Music Britain Might Lose

Scotland can legitimately claim to have invented penicillin, television and the telephone. But it has also been the source for much of the great music coming out of Britain.

You can read the views of various Scottish musicians on the independence vote here. But instead of repeating them, here is a selection of the music that would no longer be British as a kind of soundtrack to the results.

Average White Band — Pick Up the Pieces
The Beta Band — Dry the Rain
Django Django — Waveforms

Ravi Somaiya

4:09 P.M. Fate of Scottish Lawmakers in London Unclear

Apart from the issue of where the queen would spend summers, one of the thorniest problems facing Britain should Scotland decide to become its own country is a constitutional one.

Britain has a national election in 2015. But Scotland would not officially separate until 2016.

The trouble, according to this excellent analysis in the London Review of Books, is that there are 59 members of Parliament, out of 650 in total, who represent Scottish constituencies. Those 59 could materially affect the outcome of an election, then leave for good, undermining the result. And even if they do not, it is not at all clear to what extent they would be able to vote on issues that affect the rest of Britain.

Nick Clegg, the deputy prime minister and leader of the third-largest party in Britain, the Liberal Democrats, said Wednesday that he would like to see the rules on Scottish lawmakers voting changed even if Scotland votes no, but gets more powers.

Nobody seems quite able to agree what form those changes would take, though. Some members of Prime Minister David Cameron's Conservative Party want an English-only Parliament, voting on English issues. Others, like the opposition Labour politician Peter Hain, say that would "unravel the whole of the U.K."

Although a panel has considered the matter, nobody, including Mr. Cameron, seems to have reached any solution.

Ravi Somaiya

3:51 P.M. Expected Reporting Times Across Scotland

Our fellow live-bloggers at The Guardian have produced a helpful graphic showing when results are expected in each of Scotland's 32 electoral districts (in British Summer Time, which is five hours ahead of Eastern Daylight Time).

Referendum declaration times #liveBlog #guardianGraphic @GraphicGuardian http://t.co/aMGDYiPnCG http://t.co/M7zTGkCTMM

— Cath Levett (@CathLevett) 18 Sep 14

According to Scotland's STV, "each local authority will announce its result, with the first declaration expected at around 1:30 a.m. and the last at around 6 a.m." After the final tally is made, the broadcaster reports, "Chief Counting Officer Mary Pitcaithly will announce the will of the nation at the Royal Highland Centre outside Edinburgh on Friday morning."

Ms. Pitcaithly told STV News that she had been advised that whatever she says at that moment will be legally binding, though she is honor-bound "to read out the right figures."

Robert Mackey

3:03 P.M. Wimbledon Champion Andy Murray Endorses Independence

As both sides worked to sway undecided voters, the @YesScotland campaign on Twitter trumpeted a late endorsement of independence from the Scottish tennis star Andy Murray, who told his 2.7 million followers on the social network that he was swayed by "no campaign negativity" in the final days of the campaign.

Andy Murray declares for Yes http://t.co/idaeisk8dG #Letsdothis #VoteYes #indyref http://t.co/re4prAP5hr

— Yes Scotland (@YesScotland) 18 Sep 14

Huge day for Scotland today! no campaign negativity last few days totally swayed my view on it. excited to see the outcome. lets do this!

— Andy Murray (@andy_murray) 18 Sep 14

In a subsequent interview with London's Daily Mail, Mr. Murray, the 2013 Wimbledon champion, explained that he still intends to play for Britain in the Davis Cup next year. He also told The Daily Mail, "It's not my decision, I can't vote, it's for the Scottish people to decide and I trust them to make the right decision."

Under the terms for the referendum negotiated by the leader of the Scottish National Party, Alex Salmond, and Prime Minister David Cameron, hundreds of thousands of Scots living in other parts of the United Kingdom are barred from voting (while foreign nationals living legally in Scotland can vote).

That quirk of eligibility has upset Scots like Armando Iannucci, the satirist behind the political comedies "Veep" and "The Thick of It," who are shut out of the process, even though they would automatically be granted Scottish citizenship if the referendum results in independence.

Table of who qualifies for Scottish citizenship if a Yes vote. So why not entitled to vote? http://t.co/p4hlc8Fszt

— Armando Iannucci (@Aiannucci) 10 Sep 14

"Except for Viewers in Scotland," by Armando Iannucci.

Robert Mackey

2:43 P.M. Separatists of the World Unite to Root for Yes Vote

As Scots consider breaking their union with the rest of Britain, which is more than three centuries old, the referendum has drawn great interest from separatists in other parts of the world, including Catalonia, in Spain, where independence supporters could stage their own independence vote in November.

Big day in Scotland today, voting on independence. Noted in Catalonia with a Scottish flag at the Camp Nou last night http://t.co/14SSW2NNrt

— AS English (@English_AS) 18 Sep 14

I just passed by "Radio Catalonia" car here in #Edinburgh. Sure they are watching #indyref anxiously. Pic http://t.co/CD4kU06ri9

— Jenan Moussa (@jenanmoussa) 17 Sep 14

Reporters in eastern Ukraine watched a small rally of support for Scotland in the separatist-held city of Donetsk, and President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia spent part of his day meeting with the leader of the Serbian enclave carved out Bosnia and Herzegovina almost two decades ago.

Rally in Donetsk supportind independent Scotland small,but message is big: promise of armed support http://t.co/2eAGAcBlSE #indyref #Ukraine

— Olga Tokariuk (@olgatokariuk) 18 Sep 14

My third referendum day this year, after Crimea and Donetsk. This one has lively debate. And no "little green men." Well done Scotland.

— Mark MacKinnon (@markmackinnon) 18 Sep 14

Nationalists in other parts of Britain, including in Cornwall and Wales, are watching the voting closely too.

As Scotland goes to polls Cornwall Council prepares its own case for greater powers | Cornish Guardian http://t.co/jRE0K3CaUW

— Geoff McLaughlin (@geoffscameras) 18 Sep 14

@Cor_dre @WalesForYES @AlexSalmond C'mon yr Alban! #yesscotland not #bettertogether http://t.co/J22TuIG1eI

— Gwilym Siôn (@dyffrynnantlle) 17 Sep 14

But in a late plot twist, the anti-independence Scotland secretary, Alistair Carmichael, told The Guardian that the Shetland Islands could consider secession from an independent Scotland, setting off a messy fight over its rich oil reserves.

Now the Shetland Islands want independence from Scotland! http://t.co/NszO17rqih

— William Dalrymple (@DalrympleWill) 17 Sep 14

I'm all for self determination, but this Shetland secession scheme is right out of Putin's play book. http://t.co/fTATyOHbjS

— Isaac Land (@IsaacLand2) 18 Sep 14

Jenan Moussa, a correspondent for Dubai's Al Aan TV, reported this week from the Beirut restaurant in Edinburgh that Arab students in Scotland were divided on the question of independence, but impressed by the peaceful process.

I met a Libyan here in Scotland. He is impressed by the Scots. 'In Libya, pple resort to guns, no dialogue' http://t.co/CfOnwCkjWA #indyref

— Jenan Moussa (@jenanmoussa) 16 Sep 14

A Dubai-based broadcaster's video report this week on what Arab students in Edinburgh make of the independence referendum.
2:01 P.M. The Closing Arguments

After centuries of argument and a month of intense campaigning, the people of Scotland went to the polls on Thursday to answer a referendum question that poses a stark choice: "Should Scotland be an independent country?"

Last observation: tweetable:
"BALLOT PAPER
Vote (X) only once

Should Scotland be an independent country?

Yes
No
" http://t.co/zHPXnacoLW

— Faisal Islam (@faisalislam) 17 Sep 14

Campaigning will continue until the polls close at 10 p.m. local time, but the final arguments for the "yes" and "no" camps were made on Wednesday in passionate speeches by Alex Salmond, the leader of the Scottish National Party, and Gordon Brown, a Scot and former British prime minister.

Mr. Brown, who was considered a lackluster campaigner during the 2010 general election that forced his Labour Party out of power, spoke first and seemed to find his voice in a rousing defense of a continued union at a "Love Scotland Vote No" rally in Glasgow.

Video of Gordon Brown, the former prime minister, urging his fellow Scots to vote against independence, at a rally in Glasgow on Wednesday.

After listing the achievements of Scotland within the United Kingdom, Mr. Brown urged Scottish voters to "contrast this patriotic vision with the Nationalist vision, which is to end all links with the U.K., with the risks that entails."

"And that is what this vote tomorrow is really about," he continued.

Not about Scotland being a nation, we are a nation forever — yesterday, today and tomorrow. It's not about the Scottish Parliament, we have it and its powers are increasing, but whether – and this is the question – you want to break every last link with the U.K. and I say I don't want to end U.K. pensions, U.K. passports, the U.K. pound, the U.K. welfare state, the U.K. funded health service or the U.K. minimum wage.

Mr. Brown's barnstorming speech was widely praised by pundits, including Tim Shipman, the political editor of London's Sunday Times, and Keir Mudie of Glasgow's Daily Record, who wrote that "Brown's passionate address in Scotland this lunchtime is being hailed as the key address in the campaign against Scottish independence."

New film coming on referendum: "Dr Strangevote: Or How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love Gordon Brown."

— Tim Shipman (@ShippersUnbound) 17 Sep 14

Speaking later to more than 1,200 independence activists who chanted "Yes, we can!" at a concert hall in Perth, Mr. Salmond rejected what he called fear-mongering by the other side and pointed to an opinion poll that put support for independence at 49 percent. That meant, he said, "we are the underdogs."

Remarks by Alex Salmond, leader of the Scottish Nationalist Party, in Perth, Scotland, on Wednesday.

"Therefore, it behooves each and every one of us," he said, "to campaign with our utmost till 10 o'clock tomorrow evening to persuade our fellow citizens that independence is the right road forward for Scotland."

Robert Mackey


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