After voters streamed to the polls in great numbers to vote on an independence referendum in Scotland Thursday, The Times is tracking the counting of the ballots, which is expected to stretch into the early hours of Friday morning. (Estimates vary, but the final tally is expected to be announced after 6 a.m. local time, or 1 a.m. Eastern time.)
1:21 A.M. Salmond Concedes
A screenshot of Alex Salmond's concession speech.Credit BBC
Alex Salmond, the first minister of Scotland's regional government, has just conceded defeat in a speech to supporters in Edinburgh in which he also said that he would press the British government to honor its late promises to grant more powers to the Scottish authorities.
First Minister Alex Salmond's speech #indyref #ScotDecides http://t.co/tRHuFA6B6d http://t.co/rQ1cnCpwqD
— STV News (@STVNews) 19 Sep 14
Salmond calls on followers to accept "our decision as a nation." Hails turnout of 86 per cent. "A triumph for the democratic process."
— Mark MacKinnon (@markmackinnon) 19 Sep 14
Chants of 'we love Scotland' – & boos for Alex Salmond's speech – at the Better Together party in Glasgow #indyref http://t.co/z2jMHEqd9L
— Channel 4 News (@Channel4News) 19 Sep 14
Alex Salmond: "Scotland promised second reading of the Scotland Bill…All Scots will demand that that timetable is followed." #indyref
— Patrick McPartlin (@p_mcpartlin) 19 Sep 14
Classic presumptuous Salmond: "All Scots will demand…" This guy lost but presumes to speak for No voters.
— Iain Martin (@iainmartin1) 19 Sep 14
Commiserations to Yes supporters, whose idealism & optimism are still needed by Scotland – & the whole of Britain #indyref
— Tom Holland (@holland_tom) 19 Sep 14
With that, we sign off for the night and thank you for following the results with us here. Please visit the home page of nytimes.com for more coverage of the aftermath of the vote from our colleagues in Britain.
— Robert Mackey
1:13 A.M. Fife Says 'No,' Deciding Contest
Fife has voted to remain part of the United Kingdom, confirming the overall result, which is a defeat for the independence movement in the referendum.
FIFE: Yes: 114,148 (44.95%) NO: 139,788 (55.05%) #ScotDecides #indyref http://t.co/zDEGeJDvp1
— STV News (@STVNews) 19 Sep 14
It's official. Scotland has voted NO to independence #indyref #ScotDecides http://t.co/cs6T2TJnCN http://t.co/zfGafEdGbh
— STV News (@STVNews) 19 Sep 14
The writer Ewan Morrison, who explained his defection from the "yes" camp in a widely read blog post this week, saluted the result.
Scotland has voted No. And the true face of Scotland has revealed itself. #indyref
— ewan morrison (@MrEwanMorrison) 19 Sep 14
Alistair Darling, the leader of the Better Together campaign, hailed the result on Twitter a short time ago.
An extraordinary night. Humbled by the level of support and the efforts of our volunteers. Will give speech in Glasgow shortly. #indyref
— Alistair Darling (@TogetherDarling) 19 Sep 14
— Robert Mackey
1:07 A.M. Argyll and Bute in the 'No' Column Too
Argyll and Bute also voted against independence by a clear margin of nearly 60-40.
DECLARATION – Argyll & Bute votes No. No wins 58.5% to 41.5%. #indyref #ScotDecides http://t.co/tRHuFA6B6d http://t.co/uCXqEk3QA7
— STV News (@STVNews) 19 Sep 14
— Robert Mackey
1:05 A.M. Aberdeenshire Vote 'No'
Aberdeenshire also goes against independence by a large margin, just over 60 percent.
ABERDEENSHIRE: Yes 71,337 (39.6%), No: 108606 (60.4%) #ScotDecides #indyref http://t.co/zDEGeJDvp1
— STV News (@STVNews) 19 Sep 14
— Robert Mackey
12:58 A.M. Edinburgh Votes Overwhelmingly 'No'
Edinburgh, Scotland's capital city, voted overwhelmingly against independence by 194,638 votes to 123,927, a margin of 61-39.
#Edinburgh… Yes 123,927 / No 194,638. Turnout 84.4%. #indyref
— Patrick McPartlin (@p_mcpartlin) 19 Sep 14
12:53 A.M. J.K. Rowling, 'Better Together' Donor, Cheers Result
The vote against independence was cheered on Twitter by J.K. Rowling, the author of the Harry Potter books who donated £1 million to the anti-independence Better Together campaign in June.
#indyref Been up all night watching Scotland make history. A huge turnout, a peaceful democratic process: we should be proud.
— J.K. Rowling (@jk_rowling) 19 Sep 14
Ms. Rowling, who has lived in Scotland for 21 years, explained her thinking in a post on her website in which she wrote:
My hesitance at embracing independence has nothing to do with lack of belief in Scotland's remarkable people or its achievements. The simple truth is that Scotland is subject to the same twenty-first century pressures as the rest of the world. It must compete in the same global markets, defend itself from the same threats and navigate what still feels like a fragile economic recovery. The more I listen to the Yes campaign, the more I worry about its minimisation and even denial of risks. Whenever the big issues are raised – our heavy reliance on oil revenue if we become independent, what currency we'll use, whether we'll get back into the EU – reasonable questions are drowned out by accusations of 'scaremongering.' …
If we leave, though, there will be no going back. This separation will not be quick and clean: it will take microsurgery to disentangle three centuries of close interdependence, after which we will have to deal with three bitter neighbours. I doubt that an independent Scotland will be able to bank on its ex-partners' fond memories of the old relationship once we've left. The rest of the UK will have had no say in the biggest change to the Union in centuries, but will suffer the economic consequences. When Alex Salmond tells us that we can keep whatever we're particularly attached to – be it EU membership, the pound or the Queen, or insists that his preferred arrangements for monetary union or defence will be rubber-stamped by our ex-partners – he is talking about issues that Scotland will need, in every case, to negotiate. In the words of 'Scotland's Choices' 'Scotland will be very much the smaller partner seeking arrangements from the UK to meet its own needs, and may not be in a very powerful negotiating position.'
Prime Minister David Cameron also posted a message on Twitter saying that he had congratulated Ms. Rowling's neighbor Alistair Darling, the leader of the Better Together campaign.
I've spoken to Alistair Darling – and congratulated him on an well-fought campaign. #indyref
— David Cameron (@David_Cameron) 19 Sep 14
— Robert Mackey
12:20 A.M. BBC Forecasts Defeat for Independence
The BBC has just forecast a defeat for the independence movement, predicting a 55 percent vote against the measure in the referendum when all the votes are counted.
Scotland's #indyref will reject independence, BBC predicts http://t.co/ZNrWIPczRk http://t.co/lE9zry4g4f
— BBC Breaking News (@BBCBreaking) 19 Sep 14
The Guardian predicted the same result, with the same likely percentage.
— Robert Mackey
12:13 A.M. The Ayrshires Won't Have It
South Ayrshire and East Ayrshire are the latest councils to reject independence. The national tally still stands at 54 percent to 46 percent.
SOUTH AYRSHIRE: Yes 34,402 (42.1%), No: 47, 247 (57.9 %) #ScotDecides #indyref http://t.co/zDEGeJDvp1
— STV News (@STVNews) 19 Sep 14
EAST AYRSHIRE: Yes 39,672 (47.2%), No: 44,442 (52.8%) #ScotDecides #indyref http://t.co/zDEGeJDvp1
— STV News (@STVNews) 19 Sep 14
— Robert Mackey
12:06 A.M. West Lothian and North Ayrshire Say 'No'
Two more results, from West Lothian and North Ayrshire, solidify the "no" vote, which now leads by 54 percent to 46. While there are still many votes to be counted, that is precisely the margin that the British pollster YouGov predicted based on a survey released seven hours ago, as the polls closed.
DECLARATION- West Lothian votes no. No wins 55.2% to 44.8%.#ScotDecides http://t.co/zDEGeJDvp1 http://t.co/3rybr8eiLa
— STV News (@STVNews) 19 Sep 14
North Ayrshire #indyref result: Yes votes 47,072 , No votes 49,016 – http://t.co/5rDfus5TGy
— Scotsman (@TheScotsman) 19 Sep 14
— Robert Mackey
11:58 P.M. Glasgow Votes 'Yes,' the Scottish Borders 'No'
The results in Glasgow, Scotland's biggest city, are the largest victory for the pro-independence campaign, with 194,779 votes to 169,347. That 53-47 margin still looks unlikely to be enough to swing the overall result.
Glasgow declaration: Yes 194,779, No 169,347 #indyref
— Martyn McLaughlin (@MartynMcL) 19 Sep 14
Glasgow, the third largest city in the UK, votes against being in the UK #indyref
— Naomi O'Leary (@NaomiOhReally) 19 Sep 14
After another "no" victory in the Scottish Borders, the overall tally is 54-46 against independence.
Scottish Borders #indyref result: No votes 55,553. Yes votes 27,906 – http://t.co/5rDfus5TGy
— Scotsman (@TheScotsman) 19 Sep 14
— Robert Mackey
11:53 P.M. Perth and Kinross Votes 'No'
Perth and Kinross, which the Scottish National Party sees as its heartland, goes decisively against independence, by more than 60-40.
Perth and Kinross #indyref result: Yes 41,475 (39.8%), No 62,714 (60.2%) – http://t.co/5rDfus5TGy
— Scotsman (@TheScotsman) 19 Sep 14
Twenty-four hours ago, Paul Mason of Britain's Channel 4 News reported that activists from the pro-independence camp said they would throw in the towel if they took less than 50 percent in Perth and Kinross.
Most Yes ppl around me saying Perth/Kinross critical – most will go to bed/ get trashed if they get less than 50% there
— Paul Mason (@paulmasonnews) 18 Sep 14
— Robert Mackey
11:49 P.M. North Lanarkshire Says 'Yes,' South Lanarkshire 'No'
The result in North Lanarkshire is 115,783 votes in favor of independence and 110,922 against.
NORTH LANARKSHIRE Yes: 115,783 (51.1%) No 110,922 (48.9) #ScotDecides #indyref http://t.co/zDEGeJDvp1
— STV News (@STVNews) 19 Sep 14
South Lanarkshire, however, goes the other way, handing the "no" camp another win.
South Lanarkshire #indyref result: No vote 121,800; Yes vote 100,990 – http://t.co/5rDfus5TGy
— Scotsman (@TheScotsman) 19 Sep 14
— Robert Mackey
11:41 P.M. Four More No Votes
Four more clear wins for the "no" camp — from Angus, Dumfries and Galloway, East Dunbartonshire and East Renfrewshire — bring the overall tally to 56-44 against independence at the moment.
ANGUS: Yes: 35, 044 (43.7 %), No: 45,192 (56.3 %) #ScotDecides #indyref http://t.co/zDEGeJDvp1
— STV News (@STVNews) 19 Sep 14
DUMFRIES AND GALLOWAY: Yes 36614 (34.3%), No: 70039 (65.7%) #scotdecides #indyref http://t.co/08mBkHubpE
— STV News (@STVNews) 19 Sep 14
EAST RENFREWSHIRE Yes 24,287 (36.8%), No: 41,690 (63.2%) #ScotDecides #indyref http://t.co/zDEGeJDvp1
— STV News (@STVNews) 19 Sep 14
EAST DUNBARTONSHIRE: Yes 30,624 (38.8%), No: 48,314 (61.2%) #ScotDecides #indyref http://t.co/zDEGeJDvp1
— STV News (@STVNews) 19 Sep 14
— Robert Mackey
11:33 P.M. Big Vote Against Independence in Aberdeen
Perhaps now we know why Alex Salmond, the leader of the Scottish National Party, was seen flying out of Aberdeen earlier. The city of Aberdeen hands the "no" camp another big victory, by nearly 59 percent to 41.
Aberdeen #indyref result: No vote 84,220, Yes vote 59,390 – http://t.co/5rDfus5TGy
— Scotsman (@TheScotsman) 19 Sep 14
The result delighted activists who campaigned against independence.
Oh Aberdeen you honey
— Chris Deerin (@chrisdeerin) 19 Sep 14
— Robert Mackey
11:24 P.M. Falkirk Votes 'No' Too
Falkirk declares for the "no" camp, by 58,030 votes to 50,489.
FALKIRK: Yes: 50,489 (46.5%), No: 58,030 (53.5 %) #ScotDecides #indyref http://t.co/zDEGeJDvp1
— STV News (@STVNews) 19 Sep 14
— Robert Mackey
11:21 P.M. Stirling Says 'No'
Stirling, which had more than 90 percent turnout, votes decisively against independence.
STIRLING: Yes 25,010 ( 40.2%), No: 37,153 (59.8%) #ScotDecides #indyref http://t.co/zDEGeJDvp1
— STV News (@STVNews) 19 Sep 14
Fraser Nelson, the editor of the Spectator, notes that this result comes in an area of historic significance.
Stirling, Braveheart territory, breaks 60/40 for 'no'. Alba Ghu Bràth!
— Fraser Nelson (@FraserNelson) 19 Sep 14
— Robert Mackey
11:19 P.M. East Lothian Question Answered Emphatically 'No'
East Lothian goes into the "no" column in a decisive victory, 62 percent to 38 percent.
East Lothian is something of a bellwether. NO votes cast: 44283 Yes votes: 27467
— Matthew Moore (@mattmoorek) 19 Sep 14
— Robert Mackey
11:14 P.M. Midlothian Votes 'No'
The results in Midlothian, the ninth council to report, go in favor of the anti-independence camp: 33,972 to 26,370. That 56 percent result for the "no" camp puts the overall count at 51-49 against independence.
Midlothian #indyref result: Yes 26,370; No 33,972 – http://t.co/5rDfus5TGy
— Scotsman (@TheScotsman) 19 Sep 14
— Robert Mackey
11:10 P.M. West Dunbartonshire Says 'Yes We Can'
Another victory for the independence camp in West Dunbartonshire, 54-46, is greeted with chants of "Yes We Can" by pro-independence activists in the hall.
West Dunbartonshire #indyref result: Yes votes 33,720; No votes 28,776. http://t.co/5rDfus5TGy
— Scotsman (@TheScotsman) 19 Sep 14
That makes the overall count now narrowly in favor of "no," by just 50.2 percent to 49.8 percent.
Jubilant YES campaigners singing Caledonia in West Dunbartonshire tonight #ScotDecides http://t.co/kw3anZIUE6
— DAVE DONALDSON (@doubledee1973) 19 Sep 14
— Robert Mackey
10:55 P.M. Dundee Votes 'Yes'
After repeated interruptions by fire alarms, the counting is over in Dundee, where the turnout was 78.8 percent, and the "yes" camp has its first big win, with about 57 percent.
Dundee says…
Much needed win for the Yes campaign
Yes: 53,628
No: 39,880 http://t.co/B8P57dsfRq— The Daily Record (@Daily_Record) 19 Sep 14
Chants of 'Yes! Yes! Yes! Yes!' ringing out in Glasgow's Emirates Arena after the Dundee win #indyref
— Martyn McLaughlin (@MartynMcL) 19 Sep 14
— Robert Mackey
10:52 P.M. Salmond Spotted at Aberdeen Airport
Glasgow's Daily Record reports that Alex Salmond, the leader of the Scottish National Party, has been spotted at the airport in Aberdeen.
Alex Salmond has been conspicuous by his absence tonight, but has now been spotted at Aberdeen Airport. #indyreflive http://t.co/Bz5q5eNiIB
— The Daily Record (@Daily_Record) 19 Sep 14
According to BBC Scotland's environment and transport correspondent David Miller, Alex Salmond, the regional First Minister, arrived a short time later in Edinburgh.
I'm told the First Minister's plane landed at Edinburgh Airport 20 minutes ago. Royal Highland Centre next to runway. #indyref
— David Miller (@BBCDavidMiller) 19 Sep 14
— Robert Mackey
10:38 P.M. Inverclyde in Western Scotland Goes Narrowly for 'No'
The result in Inverclyde is the closest yet, with "no" winning by a mere 86-vote margin.
Inverclyde #indyref result: No vote 27,329 (50.08%); Yes 27,243 (49.92%) – http://t.co/5rDfus5TGy
— Scotsman (@TheScotsman) 19 Sep 14
The spoiled ballots in Inverclyde included 11 that were marked both "yes" and "no."
— Robert Mackey
10:35 P.M. Live Video of British Television Coverage
Sky News is streaming its live coverage of the referendum ballot count on YouTube:
Readers can also watch the BBC's coverage on its website — and choose either BBC One or BBC Scotland, depending on the accents your prefer — and on C-Span in the United States. Scotland's STV is also making a live stream of its broadcast available on its website.
— Robert Mackey
10:22 P.M. Boost for British Pound on Early Results
Our colleague Neil Gough reports from Hong Kong:
The pound rose and Asian stock markets rose on Friday as the earliest results from the Scottish independence vote showed voters in several local government areas favored keeping their country in the United Kingdom.
The pound gained more than 0.7 percent against the dollar in Asian trading early Friday, while the Nikkei share index in Japan was up by 1.4 percent at 10:50 am in Tokyo.
While only around 65,000 of the 2.2 million votes cast in Scotland had been tallied as of 2:47 am local time, the early indications were that No votes against independence had captured around 60% of the vote, while Yes votes were trailing with around 40%.
10:05 P.M. Upset in the Western Isles, as 'No' Triumphs
The results from the Western Isles, where the "yes" camp was expecting a big win, are something of an upset, albeit on a small scale. The "no" camp has it, 53 to 47.
WESTERN ISLES VOTES NO
YES – 9195 (47%)
NO – 10544 (53).19 votes were rejected.
#indyref
— Comhairle nan Eilean (@cne_siar) 19 Sep 14
When even the regions declaring themselves in Gaelic are against independence. …
— Robert Mackey
9:45 P.M. Shetland Votes 'No'
The Shetland Islands voted "no" by about two to one, the Guardian correspondent Esther Addley reports.
Shetland result: No: 63.6% Yes 36.2% #indyref
— esther addley (@estheraddley) 19 Sep 14
That result, which was widely expected in the remote North Sea archipelago, still brought cheers from "no" campaigners in Glasgow, Channel 4 News reported.
Better Together event in Glasgow erupts into applause as they hear that Shetland voted No #indyref #c4news https://t.co/kMbYLpeRjR
— Channel 4 News (@Channel4News) 19 Sep 14
As The Wall Street Journal reported this week, the islanders do not consider themselves Scots first:
Despite being part of Scotland for over 500 years, Shetland is proud of its non-Scottish cultural heritage. The Shetland flag contains the blue of Scotland, but retains a Nordic cross. Up Helly Aa, an annual fire festival held in midwinter, is a major part of island life, for which many locals spend months preparing Viking-style costumes and performances.
Tom Holland, watching from a "no" campaign returns party, notes on Twitter the opposition of the archipelago must be bad news for Alex Salmond, the nationalist leader and former oil economist who built his vision of a prosperous independent Scotland on projections about North Sea oil revenues.
It must be v annoying 4 Salmond that oil-rich Orkney & Shetland have set themselves so decisively against secession #indyref #hoist #petard
— Tom Holland (@holland_tom) 19 Sep 14
— Robert Mackey
9:37 P.M. Bracing for Disappointment in New York Bars
Although just a tiny fraction of the votes have been counted, if results continue to unfold this way, it looks as if supporters of Scotland's independence in New York could be in for a disappointing night. The Guardian has sent a reporter to canvass the mood at a Scottish bar in Midtown Manhattan, and he says support for independence at St. Andrew's Bar on West 46th Street is overwhelming.
So, to reiterate, the headline is: Alex Salmond and the Yes campaign have comprehensively carried This Bar In New York. #indyref
— Nicky Woolf (@NickyWoolf) 19 Sep 14
Three miles south, at City Winery in SoHo, another prominent supporter of Scottish independence, Billy Bragg, is now performing. In the last days of the campaign, the singer made his position clear on Twitter.
Why are people surprised that I support Scottish independence? I've been singing this song since 2001 http://t.co/hQMhzowEdI
— Billy Bragg (@billybragg) 16 Sep 14
— Robert Mackey
9:03 P.M. Orkney Says 'No'
An overwhelming "no" vote from the Orkney Islands, where there has been talk of a second referendum to secede from Scotland in the event of a "yes" vote.
Orkney 83pc turnout, yes 4,883, no 10,004
— Ross Hawkins (@rosschawkins) 19 Sep 14
"Although a 'no' vote was expected there, the margin of around 67 percent to 33 percent was emphatic," my colleague Stephen Castle reports from Dundee.
"The status of Orkney and Shetland has been hotly debated since an independence referendum became inevitable three years ago," the local Press and Journal reported this week. "They only joined the Scottish crown between 1468 and 1472," the paper noted, "having been colonised – along with much of the Highlands and islands – by Scandinavians during the Viking invasions of the 8th and 9th centuries."
— Robert Mackey
8:58 P.M. Relatively Low Turnout Reported in Glasgow
Amid a series of reports of startlingly high turnout elsewhere, the figures for Glasgow are lower than expected, at about 75 percent, with 364,664 ballots cast. Given that the poorer urban areas were expected to break heavily for the independence camp, that is seen by many observers as a bad omen for independence.
That turnout in Glasgow considerably lower than we'd been expecting, and will be seen as good news by No camp #indyref
— Martyn McLaughlin (@MartynMcL) 19 Sep 14
Yet it's important to emphasise – a 75% turnout in an electoral event in Glasgow remains an impressive figure #indyref
— Martyn McLaughlin (@MartynMcL) 19 Sep 14
Glasgow's poorest areas — such as Shettleston — seem to be voting heavily for YES. Something for Gordon Brown to think about.
— London Review (LRB) (@LRB) 19 Sep 14
Glasgow turnout 75% lagging way begins its affluent suburbs. The Yes-minded poor stayed home and gave #indyref to No?
— David Leask (@Leasky) 19 Sep 14
Average turnout across Scotland at 86.2% (though this graph excludes the Glasgow figure just announced) #indyref http://t.co/5gBsBw8Bfz
— Martyn McLaughlin (@MartynMcL) 19 Sep 14
90.4% turnout in East Renfrewshire – highest so far in Scotland's #indyref: http://t.co/rCp3vKqSJg
— BBC Breaking News (@BBCBreaking) 19 Sep 14
— Robert Mackey
8:39 P.M. First Tally Shows 'No' Vote Ahead
The first vote tally, from Clackmannanshire, shows the anti-independence camp winning with just under 54 percent, Peter Smith of Scotland's STV reports.
Clackmannanshire declares No with 53.7%. First area to declare just as it was in 1997 devolution referendum. #ScotDecides #indyref
— Peter A Smith (@PeterAdamSmith) 19 Sep 14
Ooft. Clackmannanshire was one of the Yes campaign's bankers. Devastating. Bad omen for Yes. #indyref #indyts
— Kenny Farquharson (@KennyFarq) 19 Sep 14
The result appears to have given a boost to the value of the British pound.
The might of Clackmannanshire RT @CNBCWorld Sterling just jumped 0.3% against the dollar after Clackmannanshire votes http://t.co/p4AwSvFCgN
— Naomi O'Leary (@NaomiOhReally) 19 Sep 14
— Robert Mackey
7:21 P.M. High Turnout Confirmed in Two Areas
The first turnout figures indicate an overwhelming majority of registered voters took part in the referendum in two small regions, Orkney and Clackmannanshire, Scottish television reports.
orkney turnout 83.7% (14,907) #ScotDecides #orkneycount
— Tyrone Smith (@TyroneSTV) 18 Sep 14
Turnout at Clackmannanshire is 88.6%
Total ballots 35,411
#ScotDecides #indyref— Peter A Smith (@PeterAdamSmith) 18 Sep 14
Indications of similar turnout around the country led many supporters of both camps to praise Scots for their enthusiastic engagement.
"@InvCourier: 1st #indyref voter turnouts in. Orkney 84%, Clackmannanshire at 89%" Brilliant. Just brilliant. #exciting #ScotlandDecides
— Morven Mackenzie (@cmt_morven) 18 Sep 14
— Robert Mackey
As the counting goes on and we wait for the first results, Jeremy Vine of the BBC explains that much of the vote comes from the largely urban areas of Glasgow, Edinburgh, Fife and Aberdeen, which are expected to be the last to report results.
The vote from some of Scotland's more remote islands could also be delayed by weather, BBC Scotland reports.
Misty weather means a fishing boat may be needed to help #indyref ballot boxes get to Stornoway from Benbucula http://t.co/eTLjieobrP
— BBC Scotland News (@BBCScotlandNews) 18 Sep 14
According to David Maddox, a political reporter for The Scotsman, there was anecdotal evidence of high turnout, thought to favor the Yes campaign, but also early indications that the postal vote in Edinburgh was going against independence.
One Craigmillar polling station in Edinburgh had a higher turnout by 930am than whole of 2010 general election #indyref #indyts
— David Maddox (@DavidPBMaddox) 18 Sep 14
89.9% of postal votes sent out in Edinburgh had been returned by Wednesday night #indyts #indyref
— David Maddox (@DavidPBMaddox) 18 Sep 14
No winning 2/1 on Edinburgh postal votes according to observers #indyts #indyref
— David Maddox (@DavidPBMaddox) 18 Sep 14
— Robert Mackey
6:29 P.M. Scottish Vote Fits Backlash Against Elites
We're now in that strange period when interest in the referendum is high, but actual news is scarce, as the votes are counted. So it seems like a good time to point to my colleague Neil Irwin's excellent analysis on the broader movement that underlies the independence vote.
It is a crisis of the elites. Scotland's push for independence is driven by a conviction — one not ungrounded in reality — that the British ruling class has blundered through the last couple of decades. The same discontent applies to varying degrees in the United States and, especially, the eurozone. It is, in many ways, a defining feature of our time.
The rise of Catalan would-be secessionists in Spain, the rise of parties of the far right in European countries as diverse as Greece and Sweden, and the Tea Party in the United States are all rooted in a sense that, having been granted vast control over the levers of power, the political elite across the advanced world have made a mess of things.
The thesis is given some credence in snippets like this, from the chief executive of the British polling firm Ipsos MORI.
in most deprived neighbourhoods it's Y64:36N, in most affluent it's Y40:60N #indyref http://t.co/59j2Kbbf9d"
— Ben Page, Ipsos MORI (@benatipsosmori) 17 Sep 14
— Ravi Somaiya
5:48 P.M. British Polling Firm Makes Early Prediction
The Scottish independence referendum has been tough for pollsters, as an earlier post noted, so the following should be taken with a large grain of salt.
There were no exit polls for this vote. But the British pollster YouGov re-contacted voters it had previously surveyed to ask how they voted. Based on that sample, YouGov said, it predicts that Scotland will vote against independence, 54 to 46.
"Today's responses indicate that there has been a small shift on the day from Yes to No," it said, "and also that No supporters were slightly more likely to turn out to vote."
YouGov #IndyRef prediction: YES 46%, NO 54% – http://t.co/huG6uJFiJG
— YouGov (@YouGov) 18 Sep 14
YouGov's Peter Kellner on #cnn now: "I'm 99pc sure the no's will win." #indyref #ScotlandDecides
— Hala Gorani (@HalaGorani) 18 Sep 14
We'll be waiting for the final result before drawing conclusions.
— Ravi Somaiya
In Iran, where officials have a long historical memory and little love for the United Kingdom, state television is currently screening "Braveheart," according to Sobhan Hassanvand, social media editor of Iran's Shargh Daily.
Iran state TV shows Braveheart tonight –
#scottishindependence— Sobhan Hassanvand (@Hassanvand) 18 Sep 14
He notes that a hardline newspaper has picked up the same theme.
Many in #Iran happy w/ #scottishindependence
Hardline daily VataneEmrooz: "Braveheart?" http://t.co/HzWr2Fq7Mf— Sobhan Hassanvand (@Hassanvand) 18 Sep 14
— Robert Mackey
5:22 P.M. Live Video From The Scotsman
Coming up at 5:30 p.m. New York time, The Scotsman, an Edinburgh daily that came out against independence, hosts a live discussion of the voting day via Google Hangout. Kenny Farquharson, the paper's deputy editor, will be speaking with Susan Dalgety, an activist for the anti-independence Better Together campaign and Susan Stewart of Yes Scotland.
— Robert Mackey
5:02 P.M. Why the Referendum Is Hard to Predict
One reason it is difficult to predict what will happen when the votes are counted, Anthony Wells of the British pollsters YouGov wrote this week, is that it has been complex to create polling models for the referendum.
The Scottish referendum is a bigger challenge for pollsters than an election would be because it's a one-off. In designing methodology for voting intention the experience of what worked or didn't work at previous elections weighs heavy, and most companies' weighting schemes rely heavily upon the previous election – if not directly through weighting by recalled vote, in using the data from the previous election in designing and testing other weighting targets. For a referendum you can't take that direct approach, pollsters needed to rely more on modelling what they think is an accurate picture of the Scottish electorate and hoping it reflects the Scottish people well enough that it will also reflect their referendum voting intentions – it's complicated because Scotland has a complicated electorate.
In recent days, Mr. Wells wrote, the polls have formed a consensus around a slight lead for a vote against independence. "This isn't going to be a case of individual pollsters getting it right or wrong," he wrote, "they'll either all be around about right or all be horribly out."
— Ravi Somaiya
4:43 P.M. The Music Britain Might Lose
Scotland can legitimately claim to have invented penicillin, television and the telephone. But it has also been the source for much of the great music coming out of Britain.
You can read the views of various Scottish musicians on the independence vote here. But instead of repeating them, here is a selection of the music that would no longer be British as a kind of soundtrack to the results.
— Ravi Somaiya
4:09 P.M. Fate of Scottish Lawmakers in London Unclear
Apart from the issue of where the queen would spend summers, one of the thorniest problems facing Britain should Scotland decide to become its own country is a constitutional one.
Britain has a national election in 2015. But Scotland would not officially separate until 2016.
The trouble, according to this excellent analysis in the London Review of Books, is that there are 59 members of Parliament, out of 650 in total, who represent Scottish constituencies. Those 59 could materially affect the outcome of an election, then leave for good, undermining the result. And even if they do not, it is not at all clear to what extent they would be able to vote on issues that affect the rest of Britain.
Nick Clegg, the deputy prime minister and leader of the third-largest party in Britain, the Liberal Democrats, said Wednesday that he would like to see the rules on Scottish lawmakers voting changed even if Scotland votes no, but gets more powers.
Nobody seems quite able to agree what form those changes would take, though. Some members of Prime Minister David Cameron's Conservative Party want an English-only Parliament, voting on English issues. Others, like the opposition Labour politician Peter Hain, say that would "unravel the whole of the U.K."
Although a panel has considered the matter, nobody, including Mr. Cameron, seems to have reached any solution.
— Ravi Somaiya
3:51 P.M. Expected Reporting Times Across Scotland
Our fellow live-bloggers at The Guardian have produced a helpful graphic showing when results are expected in each of Scotland's 32 electoral districts (in British Summer Time, which is five hours ahead of Eastern Daylight Time).
Referendum declaration times #liveBlog #guardianGraphic @GraphicGuardian http://t.co/aMGDYiPnCG http://t.co/M7zTGkCTMM
— Cath Levett (@CathLevett) 18 Sep 14
According to Scotland's STV, "each local authority will announce its result, with the first declaration expected at around 1:30 a.m. and the last at around 6 a.m." After the final tally is made, the broadcaster reports, "Chief Counting Officer Mary Pitcaithly will announce the will of the nation at the Royal Highland Centre outside Edinburgh on Friday morning."
Ms. Pitcaithly told STV News that she had been advised that whatever she says at that moment will be legally binding, though she is honor-bound "to read out the right figures."
— Robert Mackey
3:03 P.M. Wimbledon Champion Andy Murray Endorses Independence
As both sides worked to sway undecided voters, the @YesScotland campaign on Twitter trumpeted a late endorsement of independence from the Scottish tennis star Andy Murray, who told his 2.7 million followers on the social network that he was swayed by "no campaign negativity" in the final days of the campaign.
Andy Murray declares for Yes http://t.co/idaeisk8dG #Letsdothis #VoteYes #indyref http://t.co/re4prAP5hr
— Yes Scotland (@YesScotland) 18 Sep 14
Huge day for Scotland today! no campaign negativity last few days totally swayed my view on it. excited to see the outcome. lets do this!
— Andy Murray (@andy_murray) 18 Sep 14
In a subsequent interview with London's Daily Mail, Mr. Murray, the 2013 Wimbledon champion, explained that he still intends to play for Britain in the Davis Cup next year. He also told The Daily Mail, "It's not my decision, I can't vote, it's for the Scottish people to decide and I trust them to make the right decision."
Under the terms for the referendum negotiated by the leader of the Scottish National Party, Alex Salmond, and Prime Minister David Cameron, hundreds of thousands of Scots living in other parts of the United Kingdom are barred from voting (while foreign nationals living legally in Scotland can vote).
That quirk of eligibility has upset Scots like Armando Iannucci, the satirist behind the political comedies "Veep" and "The Thick of It," who are shut out of the process, even though they would automatically be granted Scottish citizenship if the referendum results in independence.
Table of who qualifies for Scottish citizenship if a Yes vote. So why not entitled to vote? http://t.co/p4hlc8Fszt
— Armando Iannucci (@Aiannucci) 10 Sep 14
— Robert Mackey
2:43 P.M. Separatists of the World Unite to Root for Yes Vote
As Scots consider breaking their union with the rest of Britain, which is more than three centuries old, the referendum has drawn great interest from separatists in other parts of the world, including Catalonia, in Spain, where independence supporters could stage their own independence vote in November.
Big day in Scotland today, voting on independence. Noted in Catalonia with a Scottish flag at the Camp Nou last night http://t.co/14SSW2NNrt
— AS English (@English_AS) 18 Sep 14
I just passed by "Radio Catalonia" car here in #Edinburgh. Sure they are watching #indyref anxiously. Pic http://t.co/CD4kU06ri9
— Jenan Moussa (@jenanmoussa) 17 Sep 14
Reporters in eastern Ukraine watched a small rally of support for Scotland in the separatist-held city of Donetsk, and President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia spent part of his day meeting with the leader of the Serbian enclave carved out Bosnia and Herzegovina almost two decades ago.
Rally in Donetsk supportind independent Scotland small,but message is big: promise of armed support http://t.co/2eAGAcBlSE #indyref #Ukraine
— Olga Tokariuk (@olgatokariuk) 18 Sep 14
My third referendum day this year, after Crimea and Donetsk. This one has lively debate. And no "little green men." Well done Scotland.
— Mark MacKinnon (@markmackinnon) 18 Sep 14
Nationalists in other parts of Britain, including in Cornwall and Wales, are watching the voting closely too.
As Scotland goes to polls Cornwall Council prepares its own case for greater powers | Cornish Guardian http://t.co/jRE0K3CaUW
— Geoff McLaughlin (@geoffscameras) 18 Sep 14
@Cor_dre @WalesForYES @AlexSalmond C'mon yr Alban! #yesscotland not #bettertogether http://t.co/J22TuIG1eI
— Gwilym Siôn (@dyffrynnantlle) 17 Sep 14
But in a late plot twist, the anti-independence Scotland secretary, Alistair Carmichael, told The Guardian that the Shetland Islands could consider secession from an independent Scotland, setting off a messy fight over its rich oil reserves.
Now the Shetland Islands want independence from Scotland! http://t.co/NszO17rqih
— William Dalrymple (@DalrympleWill) 17 Sep 14
I'm all for self determination, but this Shetland secession scheme is right out of Putin's play book. http://t.co/fTATyOHbjS
— Isaac Land (@IsaacLand2) 18 Sep 14
Jenan Moussa, a correspondent for Dubai's Al Aan TV, reported this week from the Beirut restaurant in Edinburgh that Arab students in Scotland were divided on the question of independence, but impressed by the peaceful process.
I met a Libyan here in Scotland. He is impressed by the Scots. 'In Libya, pple resort to guns, no dialogue' http://t.co/CfOnwCkjWA #indyref
— Jenan Moussa (@jenanmoussa) 16 Sep 14
2:01 P.M. The Closing Arguments
After centuries of argument and a month of intense campaigning, the people of Scotland went to the polls on Thursday to answer a referendum question that poses a stark choice: "Should Scotland be an independent country?"
Last observation: tweetable:
"BALLOT PAPER
Vote (X) only onceShould Scotland be an independent country?
Yes
No
" http://t.co/zHPXnacoLW— Faisal Islam (@faisalislam) 17 Sep 14
Campaigning will continue until the polls close at 10 p.m. local time, but the final arguments for the "yes" and "no" camps were made on Wednesday in passionate speeches by Alex Salmond, the leader of the Scottish National Party, and Gordon Brown, a Scot and former British prime minister.
Mr. Brown, who was considered a lackluster campaigner during the 2010 general election that forced his Labour Party out of power, spoke first and seemed to find his voice in a rousing defense of a continued union at a "Love Scotland Vote No" rally in Glasgow.
After listing the achievements of Scotland within the United Kingdom, Mr. Brown urged Scottish voters to "contrast this patriotic vision with the Nationalist vision, which is to end all links with the U.K., with the risks that entails."
"And that is what this vote tomorrow is really about," he continued.
Not about Scotland being a nation, we are a nation forever — yesterday, today and tomorrow. It's not about the Scottish Parliament, we have it and its powers are increasing, but whether – and this is the question – you want to break every last link with the U.K. and I say I don't want to end U.K. pensions, U.K. passports, the U.K. pound, the U.K. welfare state, the U.K. funded health service or the U.K. minimum wage.
Mr. Brown's barnstorming speech was widely praised by pundits, including Tim Shipman, the political editor of London's Sunday Times, and Keir Mudie of Glasgow's Daily Record, who wrote that "Brown's passionate address in Scotland this lunchtime is being hailed as the key address in the campaign against Scottish independence."
New film coming on referendum: "Dr Strangevote: Or How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love Gordon Brown."
— Tim Shipman (@ShippersUnbound) 17 Sep 14
Speaking later to more than 1,200 independence activists who chanted "Yes, we can!" at a concert hall in Perth, Mr. Salmond rejected what he called fear-mongering by the other side and pointed to an opinion poll that put support for independence at 49 percent. That meant, he said, "we are the underdogs."
"Therefore, it behooves each and every one of us," he said, "to campaign with our utmost till 10 o'clock tomorrow evening to persuade our fellow citizens that independence is the right road forward for Scotland."
— Robert Mackey
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